From Dear Author:
The following are my bold and not so bold predictions for publishing in 2012. My boldest prediction will be that Amazon will buy Goodreads in 2012. The most unlikely to happen prediction is Number 10. What are your predictions for 2012?
1. More authors will self publish than in 2011. I suspect that nearly every author will try his or her hand at self publishing new and previously unpublished content, either in novella or full length book form. After 2012, I suspect that there will be a retrenchment in self publishing and authors will look to digital first arms of traditional publishers or digital first only publishers as they realize that a) self publishing is difficult and b) they’d rather write than focus on the business aspect. However, there will be a rise in the number of self publishing success stories and the quality of self publishing will increase as supply increases. Along with this prediction, we will see the rise of publishing service companies and indie communities of publishing service providers akin to Penguin’s Book Country and HarperCollins’ Authonomy where editors, copy editors, graphic artists will be able to offer their services and be voted on by the community.
2. In an effort to capture the attention of talented authors, the digital rate of books at the big six will rise to 30-35% off the net with higher figures being offered to backlist only titles in exchange for nominal to no advances. And/or more tiered royalty structures will appear similar to the Avon Impulse and Samhain Retro Romance line. The advances in 2012-2013 will be either very high or very low. High advances cannot be sustained by sub $5.00 price points on books.
3. Readers will gravitate to lower priced books, those priced 3.99 and under, so long as the book has a good hook and a decent cover. These books will be substitutes for traditionally priced books. In looking back at Bookscan, authors sold well if they had an established name. Breaking out as a new author is more difficult than ever, particularly from traditional publishers. I suspect the new books that readers will be talking about will come from the $3.99 and under price range and those books will be available to readers around the world. That’s the discovery price range.
. . . .
9. BN will continue to move toward offering non book content. BN will allow large store leases to expire and relocate into smaller locations. The larger locations will decrease the book content to half of the retail contents. BN will begin to carry more toys, house ware goods (like cooking supplies to go with the cookbooks and craft supplies to go with the craft books), and other celebrity designed products ala Target’s pairing with Moschino and Jason Wu. BN already has Vera Bradley paper goods.
Link to the rest at Dear Author
Passive Guy says the best thing that could happen to author/user experience at GoodReads would be for it to be acquired by Amazon then redesigned from the ground up by Amazon.