Author Laura Howard collects predictions from various authors:
[From CJ Lyons]
- NYC publishers acting more like small presses by learning who their readers are and embracing the fact that their authors are their most valuable asset when it comes to connecting with readers (not multi-million dollar web platforms or app builders or whatever the social media bright and shiny expensive toy of the day is)
- Additional global distribution channels leading to more indy publishing going worldwide with translations both into and out of English (which I am personally looking forward to as a few of my favorite authors are based in foreign countries and it’s hard to find their books). Kobo is on the cutting edge with this along with Apple and Amazon, but it would be awesome to start to see more multimedia translations (audiobooks, ebooks, and print) available to more readers.
- A huge shakeup in how contracts are negotiated, so they become true licensing agreements for limited, pre-defined time (as opposed to signing away your book for life) and limited territories/formats. We’re starting to see publishers edge towards this, but so far it’s been teeny, tiny baby steps. I understand they are loath to give up control and potential hypothetical windfalls, but creating this kind of partnership between authors and publishers becomes a win/win for all involved—including the readers!
- A recent BISG study said that around 40% of all trade titles were self-published last year. I predict that the number of self-published titles will seriously encroach on traditional published titles and will be more than 50%, probably at least 60-65% by the end of 2013. At the same time we’ll reach a saturation in the market because of more traditionally published authors with name recognition re-releasing their backlists.
. . . .
[From Anthea Lawson]
- The e-book gold rush mentality will taper off. I predict that plenty of new indie authors will enter the market, but more will come in aware that there’s just as much work nurturing a career as an independent author as there is trying to break into traditional publishing. Writing books is still a get-rich-slow scheme for most authors.
- Kobo will finally hit its stride. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but by the middle of the year, I see Kobo starting to pick up some serious market share.
- Amazon will continue to dominate. They are too innovative to do otherwise at this point. I also think they’ll keep trying new things to entice indie authors, and they’ll keep tweaking their algorithms and search engines. One thing about Amazon is that they are never stagnant.
- Apple also expands – although I see a lot of people reading on their iThings using a Kindle app. Until Apple makes their store easier to use, they will lag.
- Speaking of lagging, B&N will continue to scramble to keep up, and continue to eat Amazon’s dust.
- E-book reading will continue to rise, but not at the incredible pace we’ve seen over the last 2 years. Brick and mortar stores will struggle, give over even more of their inventory to non-book items, and carry only what they know will sell – hardback bestsellers, coffeetable books, etc. More and more genre fiction will be read on e-readers and tablets.
- At least one more consolidation between the big publishers – taking them down to the ‘Big 4.’
- Increasing numbers of midlist authors leaving traditional publishing. And in general, most dedicated, hardworking indie authors will be able to grow their careers.
- Foreign markets and audiobooks will be the new areas of growth. At some point (though maybe not this year) we’ll see some translation houses springing up, quite possibly with similar 50/50 royalty split terms as Audible offers for narration services.
Link to the rest at Laura Howard and thanks to Anthea for the tip.