Publishing Predictions for 2013
3 January 2013
Author Laura Howard collects predictions from various authors:
[From CJ Lyons]
- NYC publishers acting more like small presses by learning who their readers are and embracing the fact that their authors are their most valuable asset when it comes to connecting with readers (not multi-million dollar web platforms or app builders or whatever the social media bright and shiny expensive toy of the day is)
- Additional global distribution channels leading to more indy publishing going worldwide with translations both into and out of English (which I am personally looking forward to as a few of my favorite authors are based in foreign countries and it’s hard to find their books). Kobo is on the cutting edge with this along with Apple and Amazon, but it would be awesome to start to see more multimedia translations (audiobooks, ebooks, and print) available to more readers.
- A huge shakeup in how contracts are negotiated, so they become true licensing agreements for limited, pre-defined time (as opposed to signing away your book for life) and limited territories/formats. We’re starting to see publishers edge towards this, but so far it’s been teeny, tiny baby steps. I understand they are loath to give up control and potential hypothetical windfalls, but creating this kind of partnership between authors and publishers becomes a win/win for all involved—including the readers!
- A recent BISG study said that around 40% of all trade titles were self-published last year. I predict that the number of self-published titles will seriously encroach on traditional published titles and will be more than 50%, probably at least 60-65% by the end of 2013. At the same time we’ll reach a saturation in the market because of more traditionally published authors with name recognition re-releasing their backlists.
. . . .
[From Anthea Lawson]
- The e-book gold rush mentality will taper off. I predict that plenty of new indie authors will enter the market, but more will come in aware that there’s just as much work nurturing a career as an independent author as there is trying to break into traditional publishing. Writing books is still a get-rich-slow scheme for most authors.
- Kobo will finally hit its stride. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but by the middle of the year, I see Kobo starting to pick up some serious market share.
- Amazon will continue to dominate. They are too innovative to do otherwise at this point. I also think they’ll keep trying new things to entice indie authors, and they’ll keep tweaking their algorithms and search engines. One thing about Amazon is that they are never stagnant.
- Apple also expands – although I see a lot of people reading on their iThings using a Kindle app. Until Apple makes their store easier to use, they will lag.
- Speaking of lagging, B&N will continue to scramble to keep up, and continue to eat Amazon’s dust.
- E-book reading will continue to rise, but not at the incredible pace we’ve seen over the last 2 years. Brick and mortar stores will struggle, give over even more of their inventory to non-book items, and carry only what they know will sell – hardback bestsellers, coffeetable books, etc. More and more genre fiction will be read on e-readers and tablets.
- At least one more consolidation between the big publishers – taking them down to the ‘Big 4.’
- Increasing numbers of midlist authors leaving traditional publishing. And in general, most dedicated, hardworking indie authors will be able to grow their careers.
- Foreign markets and audiobooks will be the new areas of growth. At some point (though maybe not this year) we’ll see some translation houses springing up, quite possibly with similar 50/50 royalty split terms as Audible offers for narration services.
Link to the rest at Laura Howard and thanks to Anthea for the tip.
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“iThings” Love it!
Interesting collection – it was very cool seeing all these indie authors together – looking strong and confident. Yay indies!
I feel quite propriatary toward PGs’ commenters, so I was very proud to see Anthea there, and I thought her predictions were very good. I’m glad for her nod to the foreign market – that’s a biggie.
After reading these, I have – not a prediction – but a…recommendation.
Most authors in their predictions said the $1 giveaway is dead. Ah ha! A smart indie author would wait until the $1 giveaways are pretty much gone, and then LEAP on the bandwagon and give away for $1. Sort of like the real estate market – it’s cyclical.
Why thank you, Mira! It’s fun to read through everyone’s predictions and see the commonalities as well as the divergencies.
Nice post! This seems to be the consent among book bloggers and indies who watch the market.
I would like to see another prediction though: Readers who love “their” indie author get more aware of the fact how very important word of mouth is. Either in the form if positive reviews or by telling friends and familiy to buy this book. Because a solid fan base gives us much more time to spend writing.
Cheers
Annelie (author of The Devil’s Grin)
“The e-book gold rush mentality will taper off. I predict that plenty of new indie authors will enter the market, but more will come in aware that there’s just as much work nurturing a career as an independent author as there is trying to break into traditional publishing. Writing books is still a get-rich-slow scheme for most authors.”
Perhaps there is just as much work. But the payoff is very different.
I think the odds are similar in terms of making BIG bank. But an indie can make a slow-to-medium trickle of income off sales that Tradpub would consider minuscule. Those quarters add up after a while.
Ah, some good predictions. Still up in the air about the promotion viewpoint. But there is a point that with a larger glut of books than ever before, how does one allow certain books to rise to the top? Even more, for the likes of Amazon, there will be growing customer calls for them to clear it out. I don’t see them cutting off indies, but they will make visibility harder to come by (or perhaps a separate review system, or tying up to goodreads). One can only assume things will get harder from here. The party metaphor works well, but there might also be another way to do things that isn’t obvious to us yet.
With respect to Amazon’s share of the market, it does seem like they have a pretty good lock on the American market. But the overseas market (with Europe that depends on whether they can get through their crisis) is up for grabs and the likes of Apple and Kobo might just grab that first. (does anyone here get many sales outside of US/UK on Amazon, just curious).
My international sales with Apple are about twice what they are with Amazon – though we’re not talking anything above 2 digit figures per month. Yet…
There is no European crisis per se. Instead there are some countries who having serious financial problems (mainly Greece, but also Cyprus, Spain and Portugal), some countries who are doing very well with high employment and growing economies (Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, the Scandinavian countries) and others who are somewhere between those two extremes.
For me, Amazon DE sales have overtaken Amazon UK sales in the past few months, though that’s largely due to having several German language books available. I get a trickle of sales at Amazon Spain and Italy. France, Japan, Brazil and Canada are dead for me so far.
If Canada is dead for you, that’s probably because it is still easier for us Canadians to buy ebooks through amazon.com than amazon.ca. Amazon is only slowly getting its act together so that the full range of products (and reviews!) is on offer via the Canadian website.
This is only slightly off topic, but did anyone who’s indie or start their own publishing company get an invitation to participate in the BISG survey for 2012 sales?
I did get an inventation, and I am not sure what to do about it yet.
AS for MY PREDICTION>
A mysterious older female editor will find the magical rubby red slippers buried in a basement box of a New York Publishing house, between the piles and piles of forgotten and discarded manuscripts, and she will transport the entire industry back to 1995, undoing everything which has been such a burden and tribulation for traditional publishing.
Thanks, David. I kind of went O_o when I got the e-mail yesterday. Thought it was spam or a joke at first.
I don’t understand why the term “Indie” would be replaced by “New Fiction”. First, since indies publish fiction and nonfiction. Second, because it’s not descriptive of what is going on at all.
Yeah, when I read that one, I assumed it was not so much a prediction as a wish. I assume the predictor is a proponent of the term “New Fiction” and it feels to her like it will ride along with other aspects of her school of thought.
Me? I think that self-publishing is a method, not a kind of writing, so the more it hits mainstream, the more hip terminology will either fade away, or will break up into schools of actual writing types. She might write “New Fiction” (reminds me of New Criticism — makes me think of Hemingway), and I might be part of a school of “artisan writers” and someone else will be of the Indie school.
Overall, of all the terms I’ve seen, I kind of like DIY, but that’s for the same reason I like Artisan: I like to do it ALL myself. I don’t think it fits the whole world of self-publishing.
In the end, “Indie” at least carries the connotation of not being sponsored (owned) by a big company. So I expect that one will stick around as it already means to the world at large what authors mean it to mean.
I agree that more midlisters are going indie. I’ve seen it happening very often lately (past 6 months), even in my hidebound, conservative market of Christian fic. We’re often 2-3 years behind the general markets on adopting anything. Why, it was only 18 months ago that we got the ACFW to make a policy statement that “an e-book is a book.”