Meet the New Publishing. Same as the Old Publishing?
One of the posts last week, Why the Leaders of Established Companies Dismiss the Threat That Destroys Them, generated a lot of comments. As Passive Guy has often mentioned, many of the comments on The Passive Voice are intelligent and thought-provoking.
One comment was from author and regular visitor Julia Barrett:
PG – I’ve gone from being a self-pubbing maven to having mixed feelings. You know I’ve been almost 100% behind self-pubbing.
I will continue to publish my works, but I still make good money from small, reputable Indie e-pubs. I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth and cut my ties with those publishers. Many have models the NY pubs would be wise to emulate and embrace.
But here’s the deal, the NY pubs are big and cumbersome and change comes slowly. Nobody wants to give up his/her corner office. Think the Will Smith movie – Enemy of the State – (paraphrasing) “They’re big and slow, we’re small and mobile.”
Having loitered at the margins of NY pubs and literary agents, and seen some of the worst offenses, I’m not shedding too many tears. I won’t miss gatekeepers because gatekeepers were guilty of an abuse of power and they have been humbled, whether they realize it or not. I will, however, miss a sense of organization, for lack of a better word.
I’m increasingly concerned about the wild, wild west attitude in self-pubbing. Everyone is trying to grab a piece of the pie and believe me, the pie is shrinking fast. It’s like one of those sales where women trample each other to get a handkerchief or something!
Why? Lots of reasons. Because the Amanda Hocking phenomenon is already old news. Hundreds of thousands of self-pubbers are trying to strike it rich emulating her marketing methods – heads bobbing in a raging river – it’s hard to differentiate one head from the next.
Authors who already have familiar names, big followings and big back lists are crowding out the little guy. And they are signing contracts with Amazon, which may become the next Big Six all on its own. To be honest, it almost seems like business as usual. The difference is that the people who were making money with NY are now making money from self-pubbed books, while telling the rest of us we can do the same thing. No, we can’t, not on that scale. Sorry, PG, we can’t. We don’t have their resources. So once again, very few of us small fry will become big fry. I’d like to claim the playing field is equal, but it ain’t. Maybe it was as recently as a year ago, not now.
I’m taking a step back to look at all my options. Yes, I am in this for the long haul, but remember, I’m a one-woman band. I’m working my ass off and to be honest, I wouldn’t turn my nose up at a little help.
PG is a cheerleader for authors exercising greater control over their books and and providing more ways for them to become commercially successful, but cheerleading becomes propaganda if it’s not based on reality.
What do you think? Is the book pie getting any bigger or not? If the pie is getting bigger, does an explosion in the number of pie-eaters mean almost no one gets a bigger piece?
Is this the revolution or just the old system with new lipstick? Are most indie authors just heads bobbing in a raging river?
Are we inhaling our own exhaust? Living in an echo chamber? Are we going to wake up in the morning with a hangover, realizing it was all a bunch of crazy talk?
Or is indieworld a real change, one that means more authors can live off their writing and authors who would have been perpetual rejects under the old regime will find professional success?
One thing I didn’t mention in the previous thread but I feel the need to mention here:
The “strike it rich” phenomenon is a straw man. Just because people talk about how cool it would be to win the lottery doesn’t mean they’re planning on it.
The fact is this: in order to sustain a career in traditional publishing, you have to reach a certain level of sales. They have to support you, your agent, the editors and publisher, and the booksellers and distributors.
If you look at how many writers actually manage that, you have to admit that the odds are ridiculously high against it. But if you make it into that group, you’ve got validation — you know you did something. It’s the need for validation that makes people crazy. They give up guaranteed small returns in order to fight for impossible big ones. The psychology is very much like the lottery, only instead of just spending a few bucks you can spare, you work your butt off for a slim chance or naught.
With self-publishing, you can make a living off low sales. You can be a complete loser and still get something out of the deal.
We are actually now on the same footing as the other arts professions. You can hustle for a guaranteed buck if you take it seriously. Or, as with the other arts and crafts out there, you can be a hobbyist or poseur, and still get a little something out of it.
But nobody is handing out validation.
Of course there is a change happening. The question will be: what business models will work?
Think of the authors that would not have gotten published under the old model before indie/self pub. Was all their work bad or just overlooked? Was it just not right for the marketplace at the time? Did the right people just not see it?
Also ask how good the work was that DID get published under the old model. How much of it was good? How much of it was better than the stuff still resting in the slush pile?
I see small presses as big players in the future. They are scouring the internet for talent. One of the measuring sticks they use is “following.” Does that self pubber have a following? If yes, explore more. If no, put it in the slush pile for now.
We are still at the beginning of this phenomenon. We don’t even know exactly what eBook sales will be over the next few years even though the trend is up. There are far more questions than answers. We might not even be asking the right questions.
I understand the trepidation, but I still feel the excitement.
Splitter
“Are most indie authors just heads bobbing in a raging river?”
Yes.
But then, so are most non-indie authors. And most carpenters, mechanics, electricians, doctors, dentists, lawyers, barbers, bar owners, restaurant owners, taxi cab drivers, babysitters…
Need I go on?
“I’d like to claim the playing field is equal, but it ain’t. Maybe it was as recently as a year ago, not now.”
At the risk of being critical, the OP is mouthing a fallacy. Nothing about having an equal playing field guarantees equal results. That would be impossible. To say that the field is equal means only that everyone has an equal opportunity to make the attempt. NOT that everyone will be equally successful. The only way to make everyone equally successful is to force everyone to fail. Which is, of course, the reason why Socialism is doomed to failure every time, and in every place, that it is tried. But I digress.
It sure looks like a wide open doorway of opportunity from where I stand. But then, I could be wrong. It’s happened once.
I think a lot of the thrashing comes from expectations.
Why would I expect to make the same sales as Barry Eisler or John Locke or Stephen King?
I’m not them, never will be. And neither are you.
You can achieve similar success–what’s stopping you?–but will it be an exact copy? No. And you know that (I can see the “But, but…” forming on your lips right now).
Even if you write books in the same category, you will not have the same success as someone else. You will have your own success. And if you keep dreaming of the emulation, than you could be missing out on something right in front of you.
Like in Portal, the Cake is a lie. There is no Cake. There is no pie. It’s an illusion. Quit comparing yourself to someone else. I hate to say it, but your “validation” is when your audience says, “Yes, I am willing to pay money for this product. And I think I’d like to do it again. More please.” (I hate the “validation” thing, but I know lots of writers aren’t taking their careers into their own hands because they want that “validation”.)
Expect to start small and work big. The more you write and sell, the bigger the presence, the better the word-of-mouth marketing. If you decide to write something else, there’s nothing stopping you from writing in a different category and creating a new brand. Twice the income, twice the presence. It’s how working writers make money.
There’s also nothing stopping you from selling your print rights and getting a distribution deal out of that–in whatever form it might happen to be at the time. Call it lost leader, call it print advertising, call it whatever you like. But don’t expect to get a carbon copy of Konrath’s deal–why would you? You’re brand isn’t J.A. Konrath.
Stop comparing and start thinking of how You will maximize this current business; start thinking about how You can make your brand stick to your audience. Not Joe’s audience, not Steve’s audience, not Amanda’s audience, YOUR audience.
Here’s the problem. Even if I seek out the best information available, it remains extremely difficult to calculate my chances of success in the self-publication arena.
To make a truly informed decision, I have to know both benefits and risks. A little investigation reveals the benefits: not just Hocking/Konrath/Locke but a host of less prominent writers, now earning a living by their work. Self-publication has delivered the career that trad pub denied them for so long.
The failures are clearly far more numerous, a multitude huddled in eerie silence. Failure is an orphan. I sense that this orphanage is packed in every room, about to burst its doors. I’d like to find out, but not by joining its ranks.
How, amid the general exhortations, can I hear out the feeble warnings of the failures? Was it the wrong choice of cover? A lack of resources for proper self-promotion? Or the ever elusive question, the quality of the work itself? How can a writer tell ahead of time if he/she has laid the foundation for success? And what are the consequences for her career if she takes the self-pub plunge, and still fails?
I’d like to believe that the ebook market is a true meritocracy, in which a good book needs only a little push, after which the readers will provide the momentum. Unlimited virtual shelf space and the long tail are tremendous developments for writers. But they may not be enough.
Demand for the product remains the great unknown. The shift to ebooks hasn’t altered this fundamental equation. Too many deserving books, not enough motivated readers, and one’s best work still may not succeed.
“Here’s the problem. Even if I seek out the best information available, it remains extremely difficult to calculate my chances of success in the self-publication arena.”
Yes, this.
I suppose it was easy for me… I had a bunch of short stories that had Zip All Chance of being (re-)published by anyone except me. Most of them had covers already, or something I could massage into one. So I basically had the options of…
1) Sits on my hard drive, and makes me no money.
2) Self-publish and maybe it finds enough of an audience to make me dinner money now and then.
I picked 2, and Smashwords sent me a bit over $30 last quarter! Woot, dinner money! I win!
(And, of course, I now have the idea that if I put more stuff up there, I might make a lot more dinner money…)
I agree, Beth. It was a win.
The nice thing is that you can leave them up and look forward to an unending stream of dinners in the future.
And as Dean Wesley Smith and Konrath say, if you keep putting more up, maybe you’ll wind up with a car payment or a house payment.
an unending stream of dinners
Exactly — I’ve been keeping track, and between Smashwords and Amazon, it looks like another $30 is in the cards at some point. Another dinner, woo!
And the more stuff I get up, the more chances those stories have to strike someone as interesting, and the more percents of a buck I collect. (Or more, for actual novels instead of short stories.)
This self-publishing stuff is addictive, I tell you; I’ve got this other series that I was thinking of trying to get an agent for (far as I know, a nice agent of the breed; has probable connections for one of the publishing houses I would be interested in)… But I’m looking at art portfolios and going, “Daaaang, that’d be the perfect style for this series…”
I gotta figure out how to word the query letter. “Hey, I’ve been hanging out on indie-positive blogs, and it looks like I’m really only interested in publishers X and Y, and maybe smaller-press folks who have similar values. So I don’t want to spring my attitudinal attitude about contracts on you unannounced…”
I was in the same situation as you. I had a couple of backlist short stories with no chance of being reprinted as well as a couple that never sold. So I really had nothing to lose by self-publishing the stories.
Exactly, Cora.
Seriously, what is the downside risk of epublishing something yourself? If you fail to attract any readers, for whatever reason, and you do the work yourself, *it costs you nothing*.
On the upside, you could make some money, find some readers, and so on. Again, I fail to see the downside and wonder at why people are stuck in analysis by paralysis, afraid to even try epublishing when it will cost them nothing but a little time and sweat equity.
(For those writers who say they want to “just write”, I call horsepucky. You can’t write during all your waking hours, no matter how much time you free up. You need time to eat, sleep, live, and, yes, take care of chores. Learning and practicing epublishing is just another business task creators do when they can’t afford to pay someone else to do it, unless you want to be an “employee” forever.)
Livia, that’s true. But it’s also true for *every other* profession.
Success is always, at best, very difficult to calculate.
If my aspiration is to become a doctor, what are my odds? It’s all very well for someone to say to the incoming med school class – “look left – look right – neither of the people sitting next to you will be with you when you graduate”. OK, odds are two out of three people will fail.
What are MY odds?
What are your odds of owning a successful business (SBA says 95% fail in the first five years)? Or your odds of becoming an astronaut? Or a professional musician? Or an actor? Or a lot of other jobs?
Let’s face it: whenever there are more people who WANT a job than there are spots available for professional incomes in a career, you’re going to have competition. And the “odds” will not look that good.
But odds are irrelevant. What matters is *your* success, not the average chance of success.
Most people who do not succeed at something are either those who didn’t work hard enough, or those who gave up too soon.
Kevin — I agree with everything you say, but I think we’re talking about different things. Of course, if you’re trying to decide between indie publishing or not publishing at all, screw the odds, just do your best. But if you’re looking at several different publishing paths and trying to decide which one has the most likelihood of success, then the importance of calculating accurate odds in each path becomes much more important.
It used to be all or nothing. What I mean is you either get selected to be published by a NY Publisher or you’ll never make it, and eventually get discouraged and quit writing. This is not a natural selection; it is a mandated selection by the Big Publishers. The Internet virtual store pioneered by Amazon, is allowing any writer with the drive, hard work, and some money to put their novel in print and try to sell it. This is what free enterprise is all about. This does not mean that writers can make money from their books. There are no guarantees in this case.
There are two business models today, the filtering-funneling system monopolized by Big Publishers, using the bookstore channels, or the virtual store on the Internet through Amazon and others.
The filtering-funneling system restricts entrance and limits supply, and funnels the buying public to a single distribution outlet, the book stores. It’s a brilliant business model that maximizes profits for all. Yes, writers too, IF they are published. The writers can be writers and not worry about the business aspect, but they give up a hefty cut of the revenue to the Publishers, and all control. This is no different than working for a company. You work, they pay you. You perform, they keep you employed (they publish your next book.)
For the 99% of writers that don’t get selected by the Big Publishers, there is the virtual store available. This means that a writer will become an entrepreneur, not an employee. The writer-entrepreneur must make all the decisions, take all the risks and pay for all the expenses. And this is a tall task if you never done it before. But you will also reap all the rewards if you are successful. Unlike the filtering-funneling system where your book is placed in the front window for a limited time and get exposure, when you are independent you will be selling your book in the Infinite Parking Lot of the Internet. You are becoming another nameless one. You are an entrepreneur now, and it is up to you to make a name for yourself.
So which business model should you choose? The filtering-funneling model selects you, and if you are selected it is the easiest one, with some amount of guaranteed pay, and no control. The virtual model is selected by you, it is harder, and no guaranteed pay, but you have all the control. It is all up to you to succeed or fail.
Fear can work for you or against you. If the next doctorate or future surgeon felt the same way, we would lose out on the possibility of a breakthrough in science and medicine. What if every occupation never gained an increase of talent? It isn’t about what someone else has performed previously to your efforts. It’s about you, performing and providing the best you can towards your product. Apple proved that hands over fist with the iPod, then the iPhone, followed by the iPad. They couldn’t care less if someone else had a similar product. They made theirs better, and gave consumers what they desired.
Create the best product you can. Let people know about it. Let the consumer vote with their wallets. The only person who can truly defeat you, is yourself and persistent negative thinking.
This past weekend I spoke with an old friend who wants to jump-start a publishing business that’s been lying fallow for a few years. He wondered if the surge in author publishing meant there might not be enough demand for a small publisher with much better terms than the “big 6,” and a good understanding of how to put out a quality book.
I assured him that despite the number of people who are doing it for themselves, there are still many, many authors out there in search of a publisher. I’m not one of them, but they still make up the majority.
Another talk I had was with a fellow writer who signed a three-book deal with a predominantly-electronic small press who may be pricing her novel at 99c. She has no control over the price, the cover, or any of those other things to which so many of us used to abdicate control, but realize we no longer need to. I congratulated her on the deal, and also advised her to consider carefully before she signed another contract, and at least give some thought to doing her next books herself.
Though of course I wish her well, I’m a little surprised at the OP, who knows the difference between the terms one offers oneself as an author-publisher and those publishers offer. I’ve been in every end of publishing except agenting, and I’ve sold books to the big 6, and am now publishing my own. I know what a long, hard slog it can be to sell books, whichever way you choose to do it. Is there lots of competition? Believe it! There always has been.
These days, or so it seems to me, publishing under the auspices of a press, small or large, means leaving money and control on the table without materially improving your chances of financial success, and quite possibly tying up rights in questionable contracts. That said, lots of people are still going to want that deal.
As all the other comments are pointing out, the odds of becoming the next Amanda Hocking or John Locke are slim for an author, just like an author’s chances of becoming the next Stephen King or James Patterson is (and always has been) a longshot.
What I see happening as a bigger portion of the book market moves to ebooks is that the business model of legacy publishing which is aimed at creating bestsellers that sell millions of copies will change. If the size of the pie remains the same (which most evidence indicates will not happen) then I picture JK Rowling selling a few million less copies and other authors, including some legacy published midlist authors and some Indies, dividing that portion of the pie by selling a few hundred to few thousand copies more. The result will be more authors making a living from their writing. Not leveling the playing field, but spreading the money differently.
Also, from what I’ve read the evidence seems to indicate that people who read ebooks are reading (or at least buying) more books. I think the pie is getting bigger.
That doesn’t mean that some of the concerns you voice of “living in an echo chamber” aren’t valid. There is some of that happening on both sides of the question.
Also, from what I’ve read the evidence seems to indicate that people who read ebooks are reading (or at least buying) more books. I think the pie is getting bigger.
I’m really curious to see the sales numbers after Black Friday. IF e-readers sell double what they did last year, then yes, the ‘pie’ will be bigger.
They will glut themselves on Dollar Dreadfuls – just like last year. Taking the rest of the year to read them all. So the cycle will begin again.
I think the ‘pie’ shrinks and grows in cycles. The big thing is being SEEN and having a quality product.
IMO – It’s Trade writers publishing backlist who are making the market feel smaller to Indies. I’ve been saying this for 6 months now – there are more pros in the game than ever! It is going to get tougher for Indies to get noticed.
Just remember, Kat, the writer averages about the same income from the sale of a “dollar dreadful” as they do from an $8 MMP sold through the traditional route…
Yes, I know. The term is a nod to the ‘Penny Dreadful’ not a slur.
I LOVE the name Dollar Dreadful – just like ‘Penny Dreadful’ for the old pulp fiction books.
There was quite a long discussion of the similarities between pulp fiction and e-pulp fiction about 6 months ago.
Camillie has some AWESOME covers in the pulp fiction style.
Ahhh, all good then! =)
I thought you meant it as a derogatory statement, not a term of endearment. =) I completely agree with the similarities that you’re talking about.
I love “dollar dreadful” too. (And as with the penny dreadfuls, it is both a derogatory name and a term of endearment.)
And thanks for the compliments about my covers. I’ve had fun experimenting. I think I’m mostly moving on to a different style (at least for my novels – more retro graphic designer styles), but I really do think that there is something appealing about cheapie covers for cheapie books. It helps the audience see what they’re getting.
I took that discussion about pulp fiction covers to heart. I learned a lot from your covers. I need a lot of practice, mine aren’t very good, yet.
My new cover for ‘Let’s Do Lunch’ was done in vector graphics as a nod to that style.
@Kevin – if you look back at the Golden Age of pulp fiction, there are a lot of similarities in style. Some of it was priceless, a lot of it was forgetable. (Or should I say best forgotten?)
I have nothing against Dollar Dreadfuls – in this economy there is no better inducement to invest in an e-reader than an unlimited supply of cheap books. However, ‘your milage may vary.’ LOL
I’m going to qualify my response just a bit. I’m not a failure, nor do I ‘compare’ myself and my work to the big names. I never have. I do my own thing and I work my ass off to achieve the goals I set for myself.
What I am saying is that I believe a new normal, however long it lasts, is coalescing. Compare it to the Big Bang. As the universe cools, certain swirling circles of authors – those who have been in the world of traditional publishing – are the most able, and the most prepared, to change from an amorphous blob of energy particles into a universe or a star. I can’t come up with a better analogy to describe the phenomenon.
Regarding a level playing field, no, obviously the playing field was never level. I don’t delude myself. But that’s been one of the claims all along in the world of self-publishing – self publishing levels the playing field. It does not. It’s capitalism in all it’s capitalistic glory. Like in any capitalistic system, that doesn’t mean the cream will rise to the top. As you know, books sell for many reasons. Some fantastic reads go utterly unrecognized and unsold (and they always have) while some awful books sell on concept alone. I’ve read several self-pubbed works in the Kindle bestseller list that vie for some of the worst books ever written.
What I’m saying is this – I thought the issue was clear cut when I began this journey. I hoped unknown authors who wrote the best books and worked the hardest would have a solid chance to succeed. I’ve come to believe the publishing world, both legacy and self-pubbing, is far more complex, and becoming more so. There is nothing clear-cut about the publishing world right now.
Did I expect to strike it rich and now I’m down on self-publishing because I didn’t? Hell no. Don’t be ridiculous. But my view of what the future may bring has changed, as publishing continues to change. C’mon – picture an option quarterback. If you can only see what’s right in front of you, you’re screwed. The ability to think on your feet is very important in this brave new world.
What I do believe is that ultimately we will be forming new models of cooperation if we – the great unwashed masses – want some shower time. If we don’t, we’ll be shut out once again. A couple weeks ago I sat with Bob Mayer at a conference in San Francisco. He speculated (in an educated way) that Amazon may eventually focus their time and energy on authors they specifically sign to publishing deals. Sound familiar?
Another presenter discussed the fact that book bloggers are becoming the new gatekeepers – actually filling the vacancies left by literary agents and editors. Again, sound familiar?
Don’t assume I’m a Negative Nelly. I’m not. I’m learning and growing and changing as this publishing world changes. I’ve always believed there’s something terribly wrong with a society that doesn’t allow a politician to change his or her views as conditions change. That’s where I’m at. Very little is clear, certainly nothing is static right now, so I’m keeping an open mind about all options in publishing.
Rachel – I like the indie author as option quarterback meme.
It’s going to be awhile before indie publishing settles down. Amazon is making it up as it goes along right now and Jeff Bezos couldn’t tell you what Amazon will look like two years from now.
That said, Amazon doesn’t need to choose between its own imprints and indie authors, so why should it?
I know for a fact that Amazon watches the sales of indies very closely and uses its superior knowledge of what’s selling to identify authors it wants to sign for its imprints. Why would it give up that pipeline? Particularly when the pipeline is making it money.
I’m trying to think if Amazon has ever shut down a profitable part of its business and can’t come up with a single instance. The company’s growth plan is built around selling more and more different things to more and more different people and I expect it to keep on trying to do more of that in the future.
I’m an investor in Amazon, and I can tell you that they’re thinking a whole LOT bigger than this publishing enterprise.
Read their reports to share holders: They don’t see themselves as a retailer or a publisher. They see themselves as a search engine company. Their main competitors are Google and YouTube. Their goal is to be sure that if only one person wants a particular thing, that person will always find it on Amazon.
Their strategies are all about customer loyalty. They see indie authors as a cult of super loyal evangelistic _customers_. They don’t think like publishers at all.
Very interesting, Camille, and it fits with what I know about Amazon.
Since your post was highlighted, it must seem like folks are piling on — but really, it’s just that you speak very well for your point of view.
One thing about book bloggers as gatekeepers, btw: they aren’t actually gatekeepers. They’re barkers. They don’t prevent anyone from going through the gate. Instead, they attract customers. That’s a very very different paradigm.
IMHO, if you want to really understand the forces at play in this, you’ve got to get your head out of publishing. Don’t just confine yourself to looking at publishing oriented blogs. Don’t just use social networking for professional and promotional purposes.
Camille – I think ‘barker’ is an apt description. Bloggers are also becoming gatekeepers in the sense that they have growing slush piles and review requests and they get to be the deciders. Reminds me of the overwhelming numbers of submissions to agents and publishers.
I agree with you – I read lots, certainly not only publishing oriented blogs nor do I use social networking simply for professional and promotional purposed. Yeah, we’re on the same page.
I think Amazon has lots of plans for future expansion – the world of publishing is only a small segment.
>Everyone is trying to grab a piece of the pie and believe me, the pie is shrinking fast.
Of course, there’s absolutely no evidence for this statement, although it may “feel” true or have an anecdotal basis.
Statistically, total book sales are up, e-book sales are up, some bindings (re: mass market trim, low-end hardcovers) are hurting. But no, the pie is not shrinking.
I think you’re right, Joel. Thanks for visiting.
And with at least 5 million Kindle Fires sold by Christmas, that has to mean an increment of at least 10 million ebooks sold between now and the end of January just for those devices.
Most people are ignoring the new $79 Kindles, but that price point opens up ereaders to lots of new customers and they’ll each be good for at least a couple of ebook sales apiece.
Joel, I agree there’s no evidence for my ‘feeling’ and yes, I’m as aware as the next person of the expanding e-reader market and new foreign markets. More and more people are uploading reading material of all kinds – which is absolutely amazing.
It’s hard to describe exactly what I mean, but it feels as if while the overall ‘reading’ pie is expanding – yes, there’s been a massive expansion of available material and an explosion of technology, each individual piece (reimbursement) seems to be shrinking. Perhaps that’s what I’m trying to say. The people with the right connections and spheres of influence may continue to have the most success. That’s been the model for many years, although I agree, not in every case, but in those cases, they are the exceptions that prove the rule.
I’m not willing to predict where we will be a couple years from now. I’m not certain how lucrative self-publishing will be for the vast majority of self-pubbers (it may be just as tough as the old days when we hoped for discovery by a legacy pub or literary agent) and I’m not certain how many will continue to find enough gold at the end of the rainbow to stick with it, regardless of talent. This is why I think a better model will be a cooperative model – authors, artists and techie people combining resources.
Okay, I get what you’re talking about. Still, the problem is seeing the big picture. Seeing where things are coming from and going to.
Think about this slice of the pie:
$100 — one reader spent that in, say, three months. She’s a big reader and used to spend more, but she really can’t afford it. She likes to get hardbacks of her favorite authors, but that takes a hunk out of her budget, so she goes to the library and picks up used books to make up the difference. So she has read maybe 30 books for that money.
How much of that was the author’s share? (That would be royalty minus agent cut for $60 worth of books.) That’s, what, less than $10?
eBook revolution comes along. Same reader has same budget. And she still buys some hardbacks, but they are less attractive now that her habit is reading on her Kindle. So she only bought one for the shelf — $20. The $80 remaining she spent on ebooks.
And since we want to look specifically at the effect of all those indie books nibbling at that same $100 pie, we’ll say she has gone indie-wild. She bought mostly self-published back lists by her favorite authors, and then filled out the list with indies. So say, out of that 80, she spent 60 on $5 back list books, and $20 on one dollar specials.
How much of that pie went to authors? $56 for the back list books alone. About ten more for the hard back and the cheapies combined.
And she got more books out of the deal. (And like most book people, she believes the old adage, “she who dies with the most books wins.” If she’s like me, she’ll spend the whole budget.)
Even if we assume the same amount of money is in play, the portion of the pie for writers is getting bigger. Plus we are now beginning to share out an additional pie: used books.
I believe, however, that the pie is also getting bigger — or perhaps a metaphor would be that we are sharing out portions of a lot more pies.
I read some stats long long ago, but I don’t remember the specifics, so I’ll just use personal experience as an example.
IMHO, when the publishing industry killed the midlist, they drove away a lot of readers. Sure, some genres managed to hold on better than others, but mine — the traditional mystery — was decimated. Furthermore, what was left was priced beyond my means. So I took to reading classics and stopped buying books.
With the advent of ebooks, it’s my budget which has been decimated. Authors whose careers were cut short are popping up again. Backlists are available. And booksellers can’t just stop carrying my favorite series any more. I can buy them ALL. They’re cheap!
So what has happened. I’m raiding other parts of my budget to become a real book buyer again.
Suddenly MY money is back in play. That’s growth.
(slightly OT: Camille, I’ve read your comments here and at KB about the great backlist mysteries returning to the virtual shelves. Any recommendations? I’m a trad-mystery lover (I’m not fond of talking-cat silly but it doesn’t have to be grim) and I’m hungry for new authors to try.)
Okay, I’ll admit some of what I said about the come back of midlist classic mystery is what I _hope_ to see. They are trickling back — and I have picked up a lot of samples or titles of new authors who are on my TBR pile.
And whenever I remember some series that disappeared back in the eighties, I go search on that author, and more and more I find them.
I sent you an email with some titles, but at the moment, it’s a hunt. (Except for the full priced back lists of dead authors. I’m seeing new old books come back daily.)
The Short Mystery Fiction Society has a lot of authors who, like me, are very interested in reinvigorating the form.
You know, I suppose it IS possible the pie could be shrinking…but I’m not getting that vibe. More readers are released, more territories are penetrated by Amazon and the other distributors, more folks discover the joy and ease of reading books on something other than paper. I commute into New York City every day, and I’ve seen e-readers proliferate at an explosive pace just in that one community. I’d imagine it’s the same elsewhere, or it soon will be. So I think the prospect of diminishing returns has yet to visit us.
Best way to get around it, when it does happen? Have lots of product available. Lots of GOOD product. One book, two shorts, and a novella aren’t going to do much for you, but tripling up is only a good thing.
And hey, a writer can always keep submitting to the big houses, too. It’s not like you get a scarlet letter in e-ink for publishing direct.
I have been following your blog for quite some time now, and I never thought that I would have something to say until now. Unfortunately I will have to do this anonymously, but I think you will understand.
I believe that as long as indie-writers stick to writing and publishing their stories (more stories more exposure) they will do well even in the increasing pile of books, just don’t give up.
I also believe that those traditional published authors are doing well because they have a lot of books out there. And I also believe that in the long term the big publishers can’t compete with indie authors’ price.
You see, I work for a publishing firm, actually our management got rid of the publisher in our title and keep the retailer – the publishing company in my country have a different structure than the American’s; every publisher has its own stores – though we still publish books, but only textbooks, handbooks, books for children and some self-helping books.
I work in an accounting, and I have an access to the editors, but not even once since I started to write, even when we still had a publisher in our title, I ever desired to publish my work through my company, or any other publishing company.
I don’t have access to royalties, so I don’t know what kind of contracts my company has with writers, but I do know how much printing books costs and how big are the margins.
A print of a textbook with 260 pages (around 100000 copies) costs the firm around two dollars, but we sell it for twenty. We have margins from 600% to 1000%, and as retailer (to sell books from other publishers) we charge 50%. As an accountant I’m well aware that our company needs that margin, not only to cover cost of the royalty, cover, editing, advertising but to cover the cost of accounting department and all the other departments the company has, of the management, of the offices, directors’ lunches and spending, bank loans, and the payout to the stockholder, etc.
I don’t know how the big 6 operate, but I can imagine that even with ebooks, they would never be able to sell them for lesser margins that they do now. They just can’t afford it, not with the costs that they have as a big company.
So before I knew for Smashwords and Amazon, I planed to sell .pdf files through e-junkie buttons on my web site – which I don’t have to now, because I don’t intend to support the capitalists on readers’ and my (as a writer) account.
And the validation – is just too expensive, if you ask me. So hang in there and write as many good books as you can, because as long as you have something good to offer to the readers, they will find you, sooner or later.
Thanks for visiting and sharing your comments.
There is one pie that might be shrinking, reader attention. I’m not a writer, but I am an avid reader. Ten years ago, I knew where to go to find books. There were three nearby bookstores and one “used book” store. The selection sucked, but at least I knew where to go when I needed a fix. Nowadays, I buy all my books (print and ebooks) from Amazon. And I buy a lot more books than I used to. The selection is overwhelming. I have more money to spend on books than I have time to find books I like. Amazon’s recommendation system helps. I’ve found a couple of authors books I like. But their system isn’t going to help me sort through the indie authors to find the ones I would like.
I’m an old fart (51), so I don’t listen to new music, but my son tells me that all the kids are using Pitchfork to find new music. It sounds great. I think something like that but different is going to be needed for the new world of publishing. Btw, the dude who does the pauper’s bookclub has a great start. Found that today on your site.
The great thing about books are they are (for the most part) straight up text, the easiest thing in the world to process digitally (well, if it was all numbers it would slightly easier…). I think someone is going to figure out the magic combination between human input (the cool web kids call it curation) and machine processing that will connect authors and readers efficiently. I want a system that will do the equivalent of what Amazon does (which tells me that since I’ve bought all of Barry Eisler’s stuff, I would probably like Lee Child’s Jack Reacher novels), but for authors I wouldn’t otherwise find…
Thanks for sharing some interesting ideas, William.
I started The Passive Voice because I couldn’t find a blog that talked about the kinds of self-publishing issues that interest me.
Maybe you can begin the curation process for indie books.
Not only are things changing fast, the rhetoric is getting out of hand. I recently posted on how both sides need to tone it down, after a trad author called some indies “f%ckwads” in a rant.
Frankly, I’ve out-earned Konrath based on his reporting earning a half million since 2009 (did well over that this year alone and still have two months left), out-earned Eisler this year based on his deal with Amazon, and will still say authors should keep their options open. Perhaps I need to get more outrageous to get noticed, but that’s exactly what I blogged we need to tone back. I prefer a different route. In Special Forces we were called the quiet professionals. Well I’ll still be professional, but I’m being a bit less quiet.
Self-publishing is as hard as traditional publishing, just in different ways.
It still comes down to good books, with authors who are willing to run a good business (either trad or indie) and work their ass off. That will separate things out over time.
Bob, I guess I had a bit of an epiphany, talking with you and listening to the presentations at the conference. I realized your cooperative model is very forward-thinking.
I already work with a cover artist and a tech-savvy author, but after the conference, several of us discussed the cooperative model – we are considering various ways to combine our talents, connections and resources. I’m thinking cooperation may be the salvation of the small fry.
Oh, and whatever happens in the publishing world, the biggest winners are the consumers. And I have no complaints.
Bob,
“In Special Forces we were called the quiet professionals. Well I’ll still be professional, but I’m being a bit less quiet.”
Heh! Still living by De Oppresso Liber, eh? Which Group were you with? I used to rub shoulders with the troops at the 160th at Campbell.
If it weren’t for Amazon’s secret sauce, their review/search/recommendation system, epublishing would be all but entirely futile. Why their competitors don’t pool their efforts and make a really big push into the same area confounds me, since they can’t truly compete until they do.
As a writer you were *always* competing with an immense number of untalented or undisciplined writers with inflated egos – they just weren’t as visible, except to the gatekeepers. Nothing’s changed there. Either you stand head and shoulders above nearly all other writers, or you should be doing something else – that has always been the case.
As for validation, soon enough, indies who get to the top will have more cred than those who were placed there by a legacy publisher whether they really deserved the advertising budget or not.
I think Julia kicked off an excellent conversation. Thanks to everyone who has jumped into this.
For a variety of reasons, other than a one-time trial with an early novel, I haven’t entered into the fray yet. I’m going to spend 2012 watching how things fall out and at the same time build up a strategy based on where things are going. In 2013 I’m going to do a big blitz of many books over the year and then keep moving forward year after year.
I don’t expect huge results at first, but in 15 years I imagine that I’ll be doing all right by my books.
Fortunately I’m over the need for validation from publishers, etc… I just want to share my stories and make some money from it.
But I’m not going to dive in ignorant or without a plan because then all my efforts will be wasted and I don’t have time to throw sh… stuff at the wall and hope something sticks.
Things are already headed in the right direction for the savvy entrepreneur. A new line of readers have been released, Amazon will penetrate India–a huge nation where English is the second language–brick-and-mortar booksellers will very likely continue to contract, and tradpub will go through more gyrations as well. (There’s already a fair-sized contingent of editorial talent out of the street due to corporate downsizing, and a lot of them might be camped out in Zuccotti Park right now trying to get someone to pay their bills.) If you have product ready to go, jump out into the fray and start making a name for yourself, man!
“If you have product ready to go…”
That’s what I’m working on. 2012 will be dedicated to putting together a whole slew of well-edited, proofed and professional-book-covered books.
Hi Alex – jump on in the water is fine! A bit chilly in spots, but you will be in good company.
I don’t think I have the information yet to answer this question. My offhand guess is that certain genres in fiction are pretty glutted with indie publishers, but I think that there are other markets (in nonfiction, for example) that haven’t even yet begun to be tapped by indie authors.
I do get a sense that people fell headfirst in love with indie publishing, but then, like any relationship, reality started to set in and now everyone is figuring out whether it works for them to stick it out, what compromises or adjustments they need to make, what boundaries they need to set – pretty typical emotional arc.
I also agree with the point that a new normal is quickly coalescing. Now, what elements compose that normal – a business model, a working method, the actual content itself, a marketing strategy; do these elements constitute fixed quantities, how do they operate in relationship, what room is there for flux and innovation – again, I don’t feel I have enough data yet to figure it all out.
Happily, PG’s blog is always a good place to start connecting the dots!
[...] The Passive Voice (an excellent, thought provoking blog) made an excellent point. If we’re going down this road, why should the unholy empire of B&N get away with it: [...]
[...] The Passive Voice (an excellent, thought provoking blog) made an excellent point. If we’re going down this road, why should the unholy empire of B&N get away with it: [...]
[...] then here’s David P. Vandagriff in Meet the New Publishing. Same as the Old Publishing? with an interesting observation from Julia Barrett: Authors who already have familiar names, big [...]