Ebook Sales Double, Mass Market Paperback Sales Down 54%
2 December 2011
From GalleyCat:
According to the Association of American Publishers (AAP) net sales revenue report for September 2011, the adult mass paperback category declined 54 percent (to $31 million) in September compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, adult hardcover sales dropped 18 percent (to $148.3) while eBook sales doubled to $80.3 million. Above, we’ve embedded the AAP’s sales chart.
Link to the rest at GalleyCat and thanks for the tip from Anthea.
As noted yesterday, the same chart shows ebook sales doubled from September, 2010, to September, 2011.
Those who are of the view that large publishers face challenges in the digital era (from increased competition etc.), will be interested to note that the publishers measured by this report contracted 6.5% overall on September 2010, a continuation (and extension) of the trends we have seen all year.
I think it’s also important to bear in mind that these are numbers for an industry that, far from being transparent, has instead developed opacity to a fine and self-serving art. Whatever the numbers being reported by trad publishers, I suspect the actual numbers are worse.
Also, this is an industry that only managed to keep itself in the black, back in the days when there was no competition from ebooks, by a significant amount of embezzlement of money that should have been paid out to midlist writers. You’re not likely to see any discussion of that being calculated into the state of the trad publishing industry’s health, but it’s real nevertheless. Of course, the problem for the trad pubs is that with their ongoing abandonment of the midlist, they’re also eliminating for themselves the possibility of embezzling from those midlist writers. So just at the moment that they’re going to need that dirty money the most, it’s not going to be there for them. Instead, it’s going to be in the pockets of those midlist writers who have migrated over to indie e-publishing.
Well, we’re comparing to the prior numbers from the same source so assuming they’re fudging by the same amount, and given that AAP admits ebooks are underreported (makes little sense–should be easiest to calculate?) they should be pretty flat since the “real” numbers should skew better for them as you move toward the format that is being underreported.
That’s not too bad (from their perspective) in a time of major transition. They seem to be holding up better than many of their critics would have said a year ago I’d guess (assuming for the sake of argument that the numbers are somewhere in the ballpark.)
Regarding their treatment of authors, I can only imagine that the new competition both from self-publishing and Amazon imprints can only be a good thing for the future bargaining position of those who choose to continue to use that system. I think the key will be how well they can hold on to their bestsellers as each reaches their next deal. If we see more Barry Eislers over the next 12 months that’s trouble for the major houses. If we see bestsellers satisfied and reupping I think we see business as usual for a lot of them through the transition to whatever point ebooks level out at. Time will tell…
assuming they’re fudging by the same amount
I don’t think you can make that assumption. The worse things get for the trad pubs, the more motivated they are to cover it up by fudging the numbers.
the “real” numbers should skew better for them as you move toward the format that is being underreported
Not if what’s being underreported is the degree of decline in the print format. My contention is that these are people who are motivated to defend the print format for as long as they can, because that is what justifies their continuing employment in the industry. Given that they have no motivation to honestly report those numbers, and given their previous track record of dishonesty in reporting book sales, I think a certain amount of skepticism about these numbers is justified.
Fair enough.
The problem is a lot of people (perhaps not you) want to cherry pick the numbers to support their agenda.
“Look, ebooks are going through the roof–trade publishers are doomed!”
“Oh, well the fact that they’re still financially stable based on all those new ebook sales is them fudging the numbers.”
You (figuratively) can’t have it both ways. Either you discount them all as completely unreliable, or you draw conclusions based on them having some basic truth to them. Saying they’re right in regards to what you want the future to hold and flawed when they indicate otherwise without direct evidence is intellectually dishonest.
“the problem for the trad pubs is that with their ongoing abandonment of the midlist, they’re also eliminating for themselves the possibility of embezzling from those midlist writers…”
LOL. But I’m sure they’ll keep trying.
Also, these are the AAP (Association of American Publishers) figures. They don’t take into account the tens of thousands of independent/self-pubbed e-books sold – so I’d guess that the percentage for e-book growth is actually even higher.
And as always, these numbers do not include those of indie authors. Does ANYONE have a good calculation of that (besides Amazon, who isn’t sharing
)
I don’t think so, Sarah. But how would we since Amazon doesn’t share and majority is still through Amazon. *looks dizzy*
I wish!
Publishers shot themselves in the foot when they started going with the bigger mass market paperbacks. Sure, it’s a minimal increase in production cost and only a slight increase in shipping costs, with a big bump in cover price. Looks great to the bean counters, right? The main thing it’s done is reduce the number of titles on the shelves. (the last time I was in Barnes & Noble I noticed those center aisle displays had been refitted for the bigger books and it reduced shelf space by a good 30%) Less selection, higher price. The exact opposite of what consumers want.
I am not at all surprised that the mass market pb market is tanking.
It is trivially easy to get a mass market merchant to commit suicide. This is especially true if the merchant employs bean counters rather than genuine, y’know, accountants.
Just convince him or her of the validity of “value pricing”. Since it plays to both vanity and the bean-counter mentality, that’s a doddle. It is then simple to segué into adding bells and whistles to the product, then increasing the price to compensate for additional “value”. Be sure to collect your consultant’s fee before sales tank, of course.
The attractive feature of mass market paperbacks is price and only price — that’s why they were invented in the first place. If secondary advantages like being able to fit one in a cargo pocket were important, publishers would be able to charge more for them. Of course the new format costs more! It’s bigger, and therefore more valuable!
Bah. And they wonder why people flee to ebooks.
Regards,
Ric
I must admit that even for an ebook fanatic like me (if it ain’t an ebook I ain’t reading it) these numbers are mind-boggling.
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