Mark Coker’s 2013 Book Publishing Industry Predictions
From the Smashwords Blog:
It’s that time of year when book people make their predictions for the year ahead. I bring you, my dear reader, my epic predictions for 2013.
I say “epic” tongue in cheek, because I went a bit overboard this year. When I sat down to write this, I was thinking of maybe eight or ten predictions with short narratives. I’m bringing you 21 predictions with expansive narratives.
. . . .
1. In the US, ebooks sales will reach 45% of US trade book market
Ebook sales growth in the US is slowing, but we’ll still continue to see ebooks take eyeballs from print books. Brick and mortar retailers will reduce shelf space for print as more readers turn to screens as their new paper of choice. Ebooks as a percentage of overall trade book sales in the US should hit 45%, up from what I’m estimating will probably be 30% in 2012. I might be underestimating both numbers. It’s tough to find reliable market share data.
2. Follow the eyeballs: 2013 will be the first year unit volume of ebooks exceeds print
The dollar sales growth of ebooks understates the profound shift to ebooks and screen reading. 2013 will be the first year more books are read on screens than on paper. To really understand the seismic shift toward screens, follow the eyeballs. Ebooks cost less than print books. The price of ebooks is declining, which means that the dollar sales growth cited above understates the increase in unit sales volume, and unit download volume. Furthermore, the data doesn’t measure free downloads.
Here’s a newsflash, and you’re reading it here first: Smashwords authors are generating about 3 million downloads at the Apple iBookstore each month, for books priced at FREE. Annualized, that’s over 36 million downloads. I expect we’ll do more in 2013. My 36 million number doesn’t include the millions of readers our authors are reaching each month across Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, the Diesel eBookstore, Page Foundry, Blio, the Smashwords.com store, and at public libraries. Our authors are building platforms and fan bases at a faster rate than many traditionally published authors.
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5. Publishers, in search of Black Swans, will lose authors to self-publishing platforms
Publishers are in the business of selling books, not publishing books.
The dirty business of publishing is simply the means to the bookselling ends. The publishing industry has always been built around a model of scarcity and exclusivity. Publishers want to acquire and publish only those titles they think have the greatest commercial potential. They reject all the rest as riff raff, and then they carefully meter out their chosen books in seasonal catalogs.
Publishers have built barriers – let’s call them dams and dykes and parapets – to protect against the hoards of aspiring writers seeking publication. Publishers require writers to work through agents, who are charged with identifying titles publishers will want to publish. Many top-tier agents reject 5,000 authors for every author they sign on. Publishers still reject many of the agented books as well.
Big publishers see the great unwashed masses of aspiring authors as a problem, and these walls insulate them from the problem. Publishers are simply unable to take a risk on every author. They realize most of these books don’t have strong commercial potential, and on that count they’re correct.
Publishers devote tremendous energy and expense trying to build barriers to hold back the flood, but in the process of rejecting the riff raff they’re also rejecting the unrecognizable future breakouts. These breakouts are the Black Swans of publishing, to borrow a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
. As described by Taleb, a Black Swan event is unexpected, unseen, unanticipated, improbable, and unpredictable. When it hits, it turns everything upside down and changes the world forever.
Since most books fail, we can think of a true breakout book as a Black Swan event. The newly hatched Black Swans are invisible to the publisher because they’re hiding in a sea of baby black geese. By sheer luck, numbers and some skill, Publishers pick out a few of the swans, but miss the others. Only the full marketplace of readers can reliably identify the black swans. In the dark ages of publishing, prior to five years ago, the baby swans were culled by publishers, denied any chance to reach readers. How many great classics have been lost to humanity simply because publishers missed the black swans?
This philosophy and attitude among large publishers that “most authors are a problem” and are unworthy of publishing is deep-seated. Yes, most authors don’t sell well. Most authors published by big publishers don’t sell well either, and therefore are unprofitable to publishers.
. . . .
9. Global will be the biggest story of 2013 for indie authors
The market for English-language ebooks outside the US will eclipse the US market in 2013.
As I predicted above, in the US, ebooks as a percentage of the overall trade book market will probably reach about 45% in 2013, up from approximately 30% in 2012, 19% in 2011, 8% in 2010, 3% in 2009, and 1% in 2008 (these are AAP numbers, with 2012 and 2013 my personal estimates).
This means that while the US market is still growing, the growth is slowing. Ebooks broke out first in the US market. Now they’re breaking out internationally as other countries enter the exponential phase of growth for their ebook markets.
Indie authors have a similar ground floor window of opportunity to become big fish in the small pond of these fast-growing markets, like the early indie ebook authors had in the US market in 2008 and 2009. And like the market of 2008 and 2009, larger publishers were slow to enter the party. Today on the global front, they’re struggling to overcome decades of legacy territory rights practices that have hamstrung their ability to distribute ebooks to all countries. They’ll get there soon.
As an indie author, you can get there now.
The rise of global also means that authors should modify their marketing to become more world-aware. Each store in each country has its own reviews and its own web page addresses. A great review at Apple or Amazon in the US is invisible to customers shopping in their UK stores. Each store in each country represents its own micro-market, and your opportunity is to build fans everywhere. On your blog and website, start providing direct hyperlinks to the different stores operated by each retailer in each of your primary countries. Outside the US, English-language authors will do best in Australia, the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, but you’ll still sell into other countries. Your social media marketing on Facebook, Twitter or on your blog will cross most international boundaries.
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17. Stigma of Big 6 (or Big 4 or Big 3) publishers will increase as prior stigma of self-publishing evaporates
The stigma of self-publishing is disappearing. Each week, indie authors are hitting the ebook bestseller lists at all the major ebook retailers, as well as lists maintained by the New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, GalleyCat, and Digital Book World. A year ago, this was rare. A year from now, it’ll be commonplace. The future bestsellers of tomorrow are the indie authors of today. Indie authors are poised to take more market share in 2013 as the next generation of writers turns its back on traditional publishing.
Five years ago, back in the dark ages of publishing, self-publishing was seen as the option of last resort. It was seen as the last refuge for failed authors. Publishers controlled the printing press, the access to distribution, and the knowledge to professionally publish, which made authors entirely dependent upon publishing gatekeepers. Today, these three elements of professional publishing are fully democratized.
Indie authors now have the tools to publish faster, smarter and more effectively than traditional publishers. Many indies are publishing books of equal or greater quality than what’s put out by large publishers. Indies are pricing more aggressively, and as a result they’re building bigger platforms faster than many traditionally published authors who are now disadvantaged. As ebooks continue to take market share, and as physical brick and mortar shelf space disappears, the allure of traditional publishers will fade further.
At the same time the stigma of self-publishing evaporates, the stigma of traditional publishing is increasing. Authors are questioning what big publishers can do for them that they can’t already do on their own. Authors are realizing, as mentioned earlier, that the traditional publisher business practices (high prices, slow release schedules, limited marketing support, etc) can actually harm a writer’s career.
Traditional publishers are also showing themselves skilled at adding their own self-inflicted injuries. Traditional publishing’s cynical misadventure into vanity publishing will stain the reputation of all big NY publishers, even those that haven’t made the same mistakes. That’s sad, because I think the world of books would be better off if we could maintain a healthy and vibrant ecosystem of large publishers in addition to smaller ones.
Link to the rest at Smashwords Blog and thanks to Maree for the tip.
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I’m surprised that Mr. Coker was surprised at Donald Maass’s take on self-publishing. Donald Maass is an agent and has made his living for years by catering to big publishing. Self-publishers don’t require agents and big publishing isn’t as big as it used to be, thanks to self-publishing.
Barnes & Noble may rise higher and gain market share in digital books, but I think their brick & mortar stores are doomed. I predict that they close all their stores by the end of 2014.
All in all, this is a great article and it’s always fun to read predictions from a knowledgeable source.
Hi Don, what surprised me about Mr. Maass is that just a few months prior, I met with about 100 agents in a one-week NYC tour (my feet were literally bleeding by the end!), and 95% of them were so much more pro-self-publishing. I think he’s an outlier operating in his own bubble. He’s top top tier and is playing in a different universe. However, I know other top top tier agents of equal or greater stature who share a more progressive view.
Hi Mark,
It’s good to hear that attitudes are changing. I suppose Mr. Maass will come around eventually. Two years ago, I thought that ebooks would only be a niche market, then I learned that Amazon had sold more ebooks than paperbacks. It was a light bulb moment for me and I immediately began having my books formatted for the Kindle. Attitudes will change, time will see to that, and thank you for addressing my comments.
Honestly, that does surprise me a little. Most I’ve encountered look down on indie publishing with a barely contained sneer. Of course, some of that is a facade since the indie market eschews agents as an entry feature. Many won’t get an agent unless demand for their work becomes so overwhelming they need someone to handle the bigger picture.
And maybe that’s the future of traditional publishing an literary agents – finding those who’ve succeeded in indie and want to expand. This seems to be happening on a greater basis recently.
Read this yesterday. I know a lot of people dismiss what he says about amazon because he has his own interests, but as some one who shops at amazon as well as publishes with them, I have to agree about their heavyhandedness in regards to competition and coexistence. More pointedly, kdp select. At first I didnt mind it because it was just another option I didnt have to take and it didnt affect me. Now I HATE it because I’m penalized for not using it by not getting the full percentage if I opt out.
It feels like they are trying to passively aggressively force me to exclude all the other readers out there without kindles. Through all the hooplah about evil amazon I’ve never had anything against them, but this I don’t like at all.
And what I find scarey is that if kdp dominates because of select, indies would be at the sole mercy of kne large company. We’ve been celebrating freedom from big publishing, yet now so many of us are flocking to the next guy with the shiny candy. I really wish authors would leave Select alone. I really is not a healthy thing in the long run. Instant gratification and nothing more.
Despite the financial penalty in certain markets for not joining it, Select is just another choice. Take it or leave it. Kobo was paying 80% royalties last month as an incentive to leave select. Again, another choice, take it or leave it.
There is more freedom and opportunity for writers now then ever before. Enjoy it while it lasts, or don’t. It’s your choice.
I get that it’s a choice. I get that. But my issue is that programs like select are targeted directly at reducing that choice if we make it an overwhelming success.
As the producers of the content that is being fought over, we have the power to ensure things stay neutral and beneficial for us and readers, but if we flock to exclusive and exclusionary programs, we threaten the choices of our readers and ourselves. Instead of enjoying it while it lasts, we should make decisions that ensure it lasts.
I joined Select last December and this October I pulled everything out of it. My reasoning for leaving was that I wanted to expand my readership, but, it was also my reason for joining.
Before Select my sales were dismal. The power to make my books free in the biggest ebook market available was a huge boost for my name recognition. I’ve sold more than fifty times as many books this year than last, and have given away tens of thousands of copies, and that resulted in more sales.
I have no problem with exclusivity. To me, it is simply another tool in the tool chest.
“The power to make my books free in the biggest ebook market available was a huge boost for my name recognition. I’ve sold more than fifty times as many books this year than last, and have given away tens of thousands of copies, and that resulted in more sales.”
That makes one of us. I’ve tried Select twice now (though I’ve never pulled any books down to do it – I only do it with new releases) and the result both times has been a resounding “Meh”. Granted, I’m early in the second try now, but so far it doesn’t look any more impressive than the first.
*shrug*
Of course, it could just be that I write crappy books.
Product exclusivity is a retailing technique with a long history. Being the sole source of a desirable product is something retailers like because it draws customers not only for the exclusive product, but also, hopefully, for other products the retailer sells.
For the suppliers of products, it’s a simple economic decision (although the calculations can be complex) – Will I make more money by providing my product(s) exclusively to a retailer than I will if I decline exclusivity and sell across a broader market?
Typically, a retailer proposing exclusivity must include some significant incentives – higher prices or profits, higher visibility that will result in more sales – to induce a supplier into an exclusive contract.
For indie authors, it’s a simple question (although, again, the calculations may not be simple) – will I make more money through the borrows and sales of other books to those readers who borrow on Amazon than I will lose by not selling on Barnes & Noble, Kobo, Smashwords, etc.?
Mrs. PG conducted an experiment with KDP Select with a couple of her books several months ago and decided the benefit wasn’t worth the cost of exclusivity. She’s trying another experiment with a book in a different genre now and the money she’ll make from borrows alone is much greater than she would likely have made from sales at the other etailers where she had to take down her KDP Select book.
In earlier times, authors were concerned about generating ill-will from their Nook readers, for example, if their books weren’t available on Barnes & Noble. One of the side-effects of the transition from dedicated ereaders to tablets is that readers can easily install reading apps from multiple vendors and buy and read ebooks from anybody.
Very well said. The market will react, and for now, the choice is up to writers. What we do with it is another story.
That is a good example PG, and thanks for sharing it. I wish Mrs. PG continued success.
My concern is that the money we make now could affect us negatively later. I’m not the doom and gloom type, but when I look at Select, I see something that is good right now that could bite us later. If amazon gives BN and Kobo the knockout punch and we have no other viable options, we may find ourselves in a comptomised position. I know I’m speculating, here, but this is the chess game it looks like amazon is playing, to me.
I could be way off base here, but this is what it looks like to me.
That is certainly my twitchiness, yes. (And never forget that Amazon has not always been friendly to indies; the first Kindle contract for self-publishing was, frankly, awful. Further, its rates were 35% flat across the board. It took competition, in the form of the iBookstore, for us to get 70% royalties anywhere.)
With competition enough to keep it “honest,” Amazon is a great tool and its ability to enable book-buying is currently unmatched. Without competition? Ehhhhhhh… *twitch*
Here’s my problem with Amazon and product exclusivity: it goes against their business model. I suspect it is a relatively short term expedient or even just a test. (Relatively short term meaning many years.) But frankly, if it is a sign that they are going in the direction everybody things they are, I fear for the company.
Why? Well, because exclusivity is an old-school brick and mortar trick. It’s no longer about the audience having confidence that this is the place you an find everything you could possibly want. And that is Amazon’s edge. That is THE reason Amazon out-competes the heck out of everybody.
Exclusivity works for companies like Apple — the company that says “take it or leave it, we’ve got the cool stuff.” Exclusivity can work for something like Pottermore — the only place you can get it is from the source, and that source doesn’t have to have anything else.
Amazon may have deep pockets, but when you go with exclusivity, then all a company needs is enough money to buy a few very hot properties — something which mega entertainment companies know well — and exploit the heck out of them.
And that means Amazon loses its edge. It might make sense if they want to shrink and consolidate. It doesn’t make sense in terms of their current trajectory.
But there is a bigger reason I think people are misreading what Amazon is doing with Selects:
Hasn’t anybody noticed that they have very very few hot properties in Prime?
Prime is chock full of indies, and has a smattering of titles from the big boys. That’s not how exclusivity strategies are supposed to work. And yet, Amazon is doubling down on attracting indies and unknowns by waving more incentives.
For users, the Kindle Lending Library is kind of a joke. It’s hard to browse, you only get to borrow once a month at most, and unless your tastes fall in a couple of very limited areas, and you are interested in trying out a lot of unknown authors, there really isn’t much there to keep your once-a-month quota full.
Most of the Prime Members I know use the videos quite a lot (because it is dominated by hot properties and also unlimited, and even though it’s not that easy to browse either, it doesn’t matter as much because there are movies and TV shows you know you want to see on every page), but some have never heard of the Kindle lending library, and those who do know found it frustrating and limited.
It’s something to use if you stumble across a book you already know you want which happens to be in the library.
Amazon is experimenting here, IMHO. They are gathering data. What does free really do? What (among all the many things you get from Prime) excites the audience? How does the audience respond to all these different sorts of offers? And yes, how does the audience respond to exclusivity, but I think exclusivity has another perq that may be more important: Exclusivity gives them a greater level of control over the data.
With exclusivity, they get to study the total sales of a book, not just their share.
And let’s not forget that Amazon is also studying the behavior of indies. What sort of incentives turn us on? What sort of things make us get whacky and spammy and troublesome? What things make us behave in ways that Amazon wants?
Amazon has done all sorts of human behavior experiments on their Associates and the sellers on their site. They’ve almost always come out with solutions that work even better for both the customers and the vendors. But before they get there, they like to poke the vendors with a stick to see how they react.
So I suspect exclusivity is a stick not a club. If these experiments show them an interesting new direction that doesn’t undercut other aspects of their business, sure, they’ll go for it. And I don’t think they’ll ever give it up as a tool.
But until I start seeing them get serious about getting more hot properties into Selects, I don’t see it as anything but a stick to poke indies and customers with to see what they’ll do.
That is a very interesting perspective, Camille. That is interesting fokd for thought.
BN is going to take off? I don’t know. I’ve been trying to upload a cover all week and they’re having “technical difficulties”. Screenshots of this error page shocked PubIt support as apparently they had no clue they were having problems. But rest assured their special Action Team (trademark pending) is being set on the assignment to fix it. That doesn’t happen at Amazon and I’m publishing nothing new to BN in the foreseeable future because of their non-existent support.
As for Apple love love loving indies, yeah if you have a superduper MacDaddy and can upload the files otherwise non Apple fanbois have to rely on…who was it again, oh yeah, Smashwords.
While PubIt can be slow, I am sometimes amazed at Amazon’s speed. I uploaded four new titles last week (short stories) and they were live within hours. Kobo surprised me by being just as quick, but, PubIt took more than a day.
Kobo, were fast to upload a book, but when I tried to upload a newer version, it wouldn’t upload. Weeks and weeks of talking to the help desk, and I just gave up and entered my book into KDP.
Pubit- won’t even allow non Americans. Apple- want you to purchase a Mac.
Any surprise why people move to KDP?
You no longer need a Mac to submit to ITunes bookstore.
Can you tell me where you found that info? Thanks.
Whoops. I was thinking of the fact that you no longer need your own ISBN to publish on iTunes Bookstore, which was an entirely separate stupid rule. My mistake.
I tried uploading to PubIt and after 20 minutes got kicked out of the site with an invitation to try again later. I may give it a go in the wee hours tomorrow, when US Internet traffic is low, and see what happens.
Glad to know it’s not just me having trouble with NotGonnaPubIt.
I’ve never been able to publish through PubIt. There’s always an error of some sort.
I published the book I mentioned below at 9PM Central last night. I got an error page about 60 seconds after submit, some of which was upload time. When I looked at my main page the book was queued normally. It is live as of the writing of this message.
It’s not that it’s not borked: it is. It’s just not borked as bad as it may appear to be.
I published a new book last night and got an error screen on submit, but the book is queued normally. Several other anecdotal reports of the same from other authors. All that may be broken is the “submit successful” page.
This is a good list. I very much agree with most of it, especially the globalization part (although I don’t think Amazon’s share in the global market will fade. Amazon is very determined in its pursuit of that market.
Where I don’t think I agree with him is about something he said a few times: most books don’t sell well.
Well, maybe, but I think we have no idea if they do or they don’t. I can’t imagine a worse way to sell something than the old system – pick a book based on subjective opinion and/or the fact that the author is related to someone in publishing, throw it into a bookstore for a few weeks with little marketing support, see if it sticks, and if it doesn’t, dump it.
We have no idea what the market will be like for e-books. None. This is a new market.
Bookstores are cumbersome ways to sell something; e-books are fast and elegant. Books were considered something relatively elite; e-books will make the market widely accessible. Marketing was targeted toward the elite in the past; marketing can now be focused on particular marketing segments. Costs to publish a book used to be high; now you can download a book for free.
This is a whole new market; looking at the past isn’t helpful here, and, in fact, will work against us.
Also, a book doesn’t have to be wildly successful to be considered a success.
Anyway, just my two cents. Otherwise, I like his predictions, and love his advocacy. What he wrote in the first several paragraphs was inspiring.