What We’ll See in 2013 in Digital Media
From GigaOm:
Some big things happened in the media business this year: The government sued Apple for allegedly fixing ebook prices, odd bedfellows the New York Times and BuzzFeed joined forces to cover political conventions, and a phone hacking scandal rocked Britain.
What will next year bring? Everyone loves to look into their crystal ball, and we’re no different. So here are our collective predictions for 2013, from books and video to newspapers and advertising.
. . . .
Laura Owen
1. Remaining book publishers will settle with the DOJ in the ebook pricing lawsuit:. HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Hachette have already settled, while Macmillan and Penguin are still fighting. To be clear, I don’t believe publishers and Apple conspired to set ebook prices, as the DOJ alleges. But with Random House and Penguin preparing to merge, a drawn-out trial seems like a drag on moving forward, and Macmillan (smallest of the big-six publishers) doesn’t have the funds for a long trial. I’m not going to try to predict what Apple will do — maybe they’ll keep fighting. (I hope I’m wrong about the settlement because reporting on the trial from court would be extremely interesting.)
2. A well-known author will turn down a seven-figure deal to self-publish: I think 2013 is the year we will see a famous author turn down their long-time traditional publisher and self-publish their new book — even just as an experiment. This author would likely be someone with a very large fan base and social media presence and the ability to reach readers directly across platforms. I don’t believe this person would sign an exclusive deal with Amazon; rather, I see him or her selling directly through a website and other retailers. Authors who would be capable of doing this include Neil Gaiman, Jennifer Weiner, Jodi Picoult and Lee Child.
3. Barnes & Noble will drastically cut back its Nook product line: In 2012, Nook released a new glow-in-the-dark e-reader and two new Nook HD tablets, which means that B&N now sells two e-readers, one super-low-end e-reader/tablet, two low-end tablets, and two HD tablets. Why? Who is buying them? B&N’s share of the ebook market has been stuck around 25 percent for months, and there are plenty of other low-priced tablets on the market. Microsoft has invested $300 million in the Nook business, but that doesn’t have to mean more Nook devices: instead, it should mean developing better Windows 8 reading apps and trying to spread Nook business internationally with the devices it already has.
Link to the rest at GigaOm
Big Publishing, Ebook/Ereader Growth, Nook, Self-Publishing Strategies
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I’m going to go out on a limb and say that neither Jodi Picoult nor Lee Child will be taking the self-pub leap anytime soon.
I’m inclined to add Neil Gaiman to that list. He’s mentioned many times how happy he is working with traditional publishing. And I know he must be aware of the alternatives, seeing as his wife very famously said screw record labels and went to her fans. I won’t say that he’d never consider it, but I think it’d be if he wanted to do something that traditional publishing wasn’t willing to take the risk on. And, frankly, he’s a pretty good bet.
Prediction–I will write to Nook Support and find someone home.
Just kidding!
Yes, but will they respond?
It is fun to predict.
I agree with Laura that I hope they don’t settle, because I was looking forward to some summer entertainment.
On the other hand, I stopped and stared at the screen flabergasted when she wrote that she doesn’t believe the Big Six and Apple colluded. How does anyone manage to believe that? That must take some impressive mental gymnastics to ignore all the facts, including the fact that they’ve repeatedly admitted it in all of their “defense” letters about how justified they were to collude.
Wow. Maybe she’s got queries out or something…?
I would bet against it being Sue Grafton.
What is SHOULD mean is improving their website. Instead the problems there are getting worse! You can’t sell online unless you have a decent website, for heaven’s sake. That shouldn’t be that hard to figure out.
I think #2 happened this year already. Can’t recall the name(s), but I recall some big name authors opting to self-publish, turning down multi-million dollar deals with publishers to do so.