I recently discovered Claude Forthomme’s blog. She’s followed Passive Guy on Twitter for awhile and jumped into a discussion on Nathan Bransford’s forum I’ve mentioned a couple of times before.
I checked out her blog and discovered she’s a writer, painter, cook and economist who lives in Italy, so this all sounds good.
She also has some serious opinions about ebooks and brings her economist’s sensibilities to bear on the subject. For one thing, she understands how important the 99-cent price option is.
But what about the next stage of the e-book market? No doubt this is a bullish market, growing at exponential rates. E-book sales have already topped paperback sales, suggesting that e-books are likely to replace paperbacks in the not too distant future – particularly considering the exponential speed of growth of the e-book market (at 200% a year, and possibly much more, like tripling or quadrupling over the next couple of years). Actually growth in e-book sales surpasses print sales in all trade categories, fiction and non-fiction. If you consider that e-books on average are cheaper than any form of printed book, then it is probable that the number of book titles sold in digital form is higher than in printed form, although actual figures so far are not available (I haven’t seen any – if you have, please let me know). Since printed book sales are headed down, it would appear that people are shifting from printed books to e-books.
Another important point: driving this e-book growth is the fact that people are re-discovering back titles, classics etc, all sold at generally low prices. Lots of people are stocking up like mad as soon as they acquire an e-reader. One of my friends confessed that she’s bought some 250 titles since she got her Kindle last year! I haven’t, but I suspect that I’m a particularly finicky reader and probably not “in the norm”: I don’t go for “genre” reading and tend to download samples before deciding to buy, and very often, after twenty pages, I just delete the sample.
. . . .
Let me don my economist’s hat for a minute (ugh!) and consider the structure of the e-reading market. First, let’s remember that e-readers are bought by people who can afford them, i.e. people with a “comfortable” income, presumably with a steady job and belonging to the cultured middle classes. Second, judging from the spike of e-reader sales at Christmas, a lot of e-readers – perhaps as many as half – are bought as gifts. Presumably (again, nothing is certain) these are gifts for the family, in particular teen-agers. Since teen-agers have generally limited pocket money, one may assume they are the ones buying e-books at the low end of the price range (from $0.99 to $3.99) and possibly downloading free titles.
And this is where (perhaps) the book-reading market might be expanding: for the first time, adolescents everywhere are in full charge of their book purchases. They don’t have to go to the bookstore with Mum and Dad to buy books and have their choices dictated by adults. They learn for themselves the pleasure of reading, and hopefully that pleasure will remain with them for the rest of their lives. This might help explain the extraordinary success of Amanda Hocking’s paranormal romance titles – clear emulations of Stephanie Meyer’s “Twilight” which, as we all know, is currently all the rage with teen-agers. Amanda Hocking’s e-books became blockbusters last year and turned her into a millionaire in less than 9 months because in the e-book market there is a vast, new Young Adult audience looking for just this kind of book.
You’ll want to read the rest at Claude Nougat – It’s Political, it’s Artsy!