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Are Paper Books Really Disappearing?

27 January 2016

From The BBC:

When Peter James published his novel Host on two floppy disks in 1993, he was ill-prepared for the “venomous backlash” that would follow. Journalists and fellow writers berated and condemned him; one reporter even dragged a PC and a generator out to the beach to demonstrate the ridiculousness of this new form of reading. “I was front-page news of many newspapers around the world, accused of killing the novel,”James told pop.edit.lit. “[But] I pointed out that the novel was already dying at an alarming rate without my assistance.”

Shortly after Host’s debut, James also issued a prediction: that e-books would spike in popularity once they became as easy and enjoyable to read as printed books. What was a novelty in the 90s, in other words, would eventually mature to the point that it threatened traditional books with extinction. Two decades later, James’ vision is well on its way to being realised.

That e-books have surged in popularity in recent years is not news, but where they are headed – and what effect this will ultimately have on the printed word – is unknown. Are printed books destined to eventually join the ranks of clay tablets, scrolls and typewritten pages, to be displayed in collectors’ glass cases with other curious items of the distant past?

. . . .

Indeed, despite the hand wringing that Jones’ Host – said by some to be the first digital novel – caused in 1993, publishers weren’t too concerned. “In 1992, I spoke to CEOs at probably five of the seven major publishing companies, and they all said ‘This has nothing to do with us. People will never read on screens’,” says Robert Stein, founder of the Institute for the Future of the Book and co-founder of Voyager and the Criterion Collection.

In 2007, with Amazon’s release of the Kindle, that attitude abruptly changed. Almost immediately, the device began causing palpitations in the publishing industry. “Amazon had the clout to go to publishers and say, ‘This is serious. We want your books,’” Shatzkin says. “And because Amazon is Amazon, they also didn’t really care as much about profit on every unit sale as they did for lifetime customer value, so they were happy to sell their e-books for cheap.”

From 2008 to 2010 e-book sales skyrocketed, jumping up to 1,260%, the New York Times reports. Adding fuel to the e-book fire, Nook debuted, as did the iPad, which was released alongside the iBooks Store. “By that time, the publishing industry had lost all possible ability to regain any initiative and momentum,” Stein says. In 2011, as Borders Books declared bankruptcy, e-books’ popularity continued to steadily rise – though not exponentially, as it turns out.

. . . .

While no one can say with certainty what the future holds for paper books, Stein believes that what is a plateau now will, at some point, return to a steep incline. “We’re in a transitional period,” he says. “The affordances of screen reading will continuously improve and expand, offering people a reason to switch to screens.”

. . . .

Stein imagines, for example, that future forms of books might be developed not by conventional publishers but by the gaming industry. He also envisions that the distinction between writer and reader will be blurred by a social reading experience in which authors and consumers can digitally interact with each other to discuss any passage, sentence or line. Indeed, his latest project, Social Book, allows members to insert comments directly into digital book texts and is already used by teachers at several high schools and universities to stimulate discussions. “For my grandchildren, the idea that reading is something you do by yourself will seem arcane,” he says. “Why would you want to read by yourself if you can have access to the ideas of others you know and trust, or to the insights of people from all over the world?”

. . . .

“I think printed books just for plain old reading will, in 10 years from now, be unusual,” Shatzkin adds. “Not so unusual that a kid will say, ‘Mommy, what’s that?’ but unusual enough that on the train you’ll see one or two people reading something printed, while everyone else is reading off of a device.”

. . . .

Shatzkin does believe, however, that the eventual and total demise of print “is inevitable,” though such a day won’t arrive for perhaps 50 to 100 or more years. “It will get harder and harder to understand why anyone would print something that’s heavy, hard to ship and not customisable,” he says. “I think there will come a point where print just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Frankly, I reached that point years ago for books that you just read.”

. . . .

But for all the worries about e-books changing the way we comprehend the written word and interact with one another, Wolf points out that “never before have we had such a democratisation of knowledge made possible.” While too much time on devices might mean problems for children and adults in places like Europe and the US, for those in developing countries, they may be a godsend, Wolf says – “the most important mechanism for giving literacy.”

Link to the rest at The BBC

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16 Comments to “Are Paper Books Really Disappearing?”

  1. “I think printed books just for plain old reading will, in 10 years from now, be unusual,”

    Been to an airport terminal or a subway station lately? it already is unusual. And has been for some time now.

  2. Another question title so answer be ‘nope’.

    CDs and records are still around too …

  3. I think there will come a point where print just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Frankly, I reached that point years ago for books that you just read.

    Interesting to hear this from Shatzkin. Makes me wonder how much he tones down his public stance and soft-pedals his advice to trad pub, figuring that telling it straight would alienate his clients.

  4. “Why would you want to read by yourself if you can have access to the ideas of others you know and trust, or to the insights of people from all over the world?”

    Let me count the ways — 1. Because I don’t consider reading a book a social activity. 2. Because I don’t want anyone getting between me and the author. 3. Because most people aren’t “insightful,” just opinionated. 4. Because I’m not interested in joining the hive mentality. 5. Because there are damned few people I would trust when it comes to reading. 6… I’m sure I can come up with more reasons, given a little time, but those are the ssentials.

    • Catana, #7. Because I read to get AWAY from people, not join them in an activity. I can’t imagine anything more horrifying than people commenting while I’m trying to read.

    • I could see it being useful in certain cases. Like, if you’re part of a class, all studying the same chapter in the same textbook, you could discuss parts of it that need discussion right there in comments on them.

      But for just plain pleasure reading, no.

  5. “Are printed books destined to eventually join the ranks of clay tablets, scrolls and typewritten pages, to be displayed in collectors’ glass cases with other curious items of the distant past?”

    Why, yes.

    Now we simply have to wait and find out when.

  6. “And because Amazon is Amazon, they also didn’t really care as much about profit on every unit sale as they did for lifetime customer value, so they were happy to sell their e-books for cheap.”

    I don’t think this is quite right. I think Amazon looked at the cost structures with fresh eyes and presented an alternative pricing model. It is not that they were uncaring about profit, but that e-books inherently have much less overhead than paper. Amazon was also not trying to match e-book pricing to preserve paper book sales, but treating e-books on their own merits.

    • Actually, it’s pretty accurate. Amazon care about profits, yes, but not as much as they care about customer retention. Every loyal Amazon customer is a long-term profit centre that does not have to be recorded as an asset on the books. The knowledge that you will continue buying from them is of great monetary value – but in the nature of things, that value is not taxable until the purchases are actually made.

      However, your point about the alternative pricing model is also right. The two aren’t mutually exclusive. Bezos & company know that the two most reliable ways of keeping a customer are to have low prices and a wide selection of goods. Cheap ebooks serve both those purposes admirably.

    • Amazon cares a lot about profits. Somehow a rumor started that they don’t, and that’s somehow virtuous.

      Amazon generates lots of cash flow. The disposition of each dollar of cash flow determines if it is profit or expense.

      The cash flow that is invested in new business growth is economic profit. It is not financial profit. That’s fine. They are two different things.

      After Amazon spends its cash flow on business development, it has free cash flow left over.

      Investors’ economic profit is represented by the business Amazon has built.

      They don’t have to choose between economic profit and customer retention.

  7. I agree entirely. The point I was trying to make was that the implication (at least to me) of the statement “sell their e-books for cheap” is that Amazon were not making money on the e-books passing through their site. Rather, they had a different pricing model as Amazon is not producing the e-books, just selling them at an agreed price and not tying the e-book price to other products.

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