From Joe Konrath:
Joe: Yesterday I asked any Authors United signatory to engage me on my blog.
Lee Child took me up on it.
. . . .
Lee: Here’s my personal take … speaking generally, with a plural “you” … and as a guy entirely unafraid of the future, whatever it may bring – after all, I kicked your ass under the old system, and I’ll kick it under the new system, and the new-new, and the new-new-new, until I retire, or the lung cancer gets me, whichever comes first. I’m completely confident of that, and you’d be an idiot to bet against me. We both started from nowhere, and in the last three weeks I sold more ebooks – of one title – than you have sold in your entire life. Or will sell. Print visibility, you say? How? Print is a niche, according to you, and no one visits bookstores anymore!
Joe: First of all, congrats on selling more than 1.5 million ebooks (which is where I’m at to date) in the last three weeks. I assume I’ll sell a few million more before I kick off, so let’s call my total lifetime sales 5 million. It’s damn impressive that you sold that many ebooks in three weeks of just one title.
But it’s also nearing the end of that era. You’re everywhere books are sold. I’m not. That’s a huge advantage. One I never had. Your massive paper distribution serves as a giant, global advertisement for your ebooks.
. . . .
You may believe the legacy publishing world is a meritocracy. I believe it’s a lottery. No one earns a lottery win. No one is entitled to it.
. . . .
Lee: And don’t tell me I was lucky or “anointed” or some such … again, we all start from the same place, but I worked harder and smarter than my rivals, and believe me, I’m ready to do it all again … so don’t tell me I’m scared or whining – truth is, I’m licking my lips in anticipation of the big win in whatever scenario comes next.
. . . .
Lee: And let’s settle one thing … the so-called Amazon/Hachette contract … I think you overestimate it, or misunderstand it, possibly. It ain’t the key to some kind of magic kingdom. Almost every sale Amazon makes happens without a contract with the supplier or manufacturer. It used to be that way with Hachette. Hachette sold to wholesalers, at a certain discount, and the wholesalers sold on to Amazon, at a slight markup. Soon Amazon wanted to avoid that markup, so it went to Hachette and asked, “Please will you sell to us direct?” And Hachette said, “OK.” And that’s the so-called contract, right there.
Joe: And then Hachette colluded with four other publishers to force Amazon to accept their new terms, i.e. the agency model. Amazon didn’t want to accept those terms. Not because of the 30/70 split, but because it took away Amazon’s ability to discount.
Suddenly contracts became important. What began as a mutual handshake (assuming you’re correct about this) was no longer acceptable to either party.
Right now, Hachette doesn’t want Amazon to be able to discount. Amazon wants to discount. Since Hachette forced a contract on Amazon–the agency contract–and that contract lapsed, Amazon does not have to sell Hachette’s titles under Hachette’s terms.
. . . .
Lee: But, here’s the thing – by continuing to trade under expired terms, it’s Hachette doing Amazon a favor, not vice versa. Amazon is still getting its protection money – and giving nothing in return right now – and still avoiding the wholesalers’ markup.
Joe: If Amazon wants to charge Hachette to sell its books, it can do that. If Amazon doesn’t want to discount, it can do that. Amazon isn’t a monopoly, and it isn’t the government. Being a tough competitor or being tough with suppliers doesn’t violate any laws.
Lee: If Hachette walked away, Amazon would lose… unless it was prepared not to carry Hachette titles ever again. Which it isn’t, because Amazon’s whole theory is to be the go-to, first-stop, everything store. “I’ll get it from Amazon” is what they depend on hearing. “I wonder if Amazon has it?” would be the kiss of death.
Joe: I believe you overestimate the value of Hachette’s catalog to Amazon.
. . . .
Lee: Which is why the dispute is so intractable. It’s half-rational, half-emotional. And flawed – Amazon wants more protection money now (yes, it’s really that simple) but it isn’t prepared to get up from the table and walk away. Neither is Hachette. Hachette’s best play – logically – would be to walk away and suffer a few lean years before an alternative presented itself. I’m absolutely sure its parent company wants it to do that, and would support it in so doing. Huge European corporations are good at the long game. But local management is resisting, because the hiatus would derail too many careers. Again, half-rational, half-emotional.
. . . .
Lee: It’s staggeringly naïve to think the current KDP landscape is anything other than a short-term tactic. Note well – I am NOT saying don’t get into it now just because it will get worse in the future… instead I say, hell yes, make hay while the sun shines. Exploit Amazon’s game plan for all you can get, as long as it lasts, and more power to you. But understand that today’s KDP is a pressure point, designed to suck authors out of the established system, along with sucking out money and margin by other routes. Truth is, it ain’t working great so far – no significant authors have jumped ship, and publishers are still profitable. But Bezos never gives up.
And if he wins… then we all have a problem. Note well – I am NOT talking about nurturing or culture or curating or any of that kind of non-existent crap. I’m talking about money. Amazon is a tech company. The basic tech paradigm says content is always the smallest part of the cost. Those guys really believe that. Storytellers will be working for whatever few pennies they choose to hand out. (Or some will. I’ll be doing something else by then. I don’t work for pennies.)
Joe: Most of us already have a problem. It’s with publishers like Hachette. Right now, Hachette, and the rest of Big Publishing, treat the vast majority of authors as the smallest part of their costs.
Hachette authors are getting screwed, working for pennies. And Hachette’s insistence on keeping ebook prices high to protect its paper oligopoly will continue to hurt all authors but the very top of the heap (such as yourself).
On the other hand, Amazon is allowing many authors to make money for the very first time.
Link to the rest at Joe Konrath and thanks to Barb for the tip.