2 thoughts on “Even the pandemic flu of 1918”

  1. Infected: 500 million.
    Deaths: 50 million.
    (Source: CDC)

    50 million is one to two percent of 500 million? I would have thought you needed a grasp of basic arithmetic to be an immunologist.

    • In fairness to Mr Fauci, the 500 million infected is no more than a guess – little more than a figure plucked out of the air – which will be much less reliable than the number of deaths, which is also fairly uncertain. The 50 million deaths is a commonly quoted figure but subject to much dispute. The most recent estimate I’ve found (Spreeuwenberg et al, Journal of Epidemiology December 2018) gives 17.4 million (though I lack the expertise required to judge the validity of this article).

      If this figure is accepted. it suggests that about 1% of the world’s population died. As it seems quite likely that the majority of the population was exposed to the ‘flu, a death rate of 2% for those infected is not wholly unreasonable.

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