I think generally people underestimate the capability of AI. They sort of think like it’s a smart human.
. . . .
But it’s really going to be much more than that. It’ll be much smarter than the average human.
. . . .
It’ll be like, can a chimpanzee really understand humans? Not really, you know, we just seem like strange aliens. They mostly just care about other chimpanzees.
. . . .
And how it is more or less and if the difference is only that small, that would be amazing. Probably, it’s much greater.
. . . .
The biggest mistake I see artificial intelligence researchers making is assuming they’re intelligent. They’re not, compared to AI.
. . . .
A lot of them cannot imagine something that is smarter than them but AI will be vastly smarter. Vastly.
Elon Musk
AI research has oscillated between “summer” and “winter” periods with winter arriving when it dawns on observers that the great hopes of summer have not worked out. We’ve been living through a summer of great hype – very good for getting money from investors and governments – and Elon Musk has been very much part of the hype machine. It may be a bit early to say “winter is coming” but quite a few people on the field are saying that summer is turning to autumn as the limitations and failures in the current approaches become clearer.
The most important words in the quote by Musk are “I think”: it is just a matter of his opinions, his speculations about the future and like all such speculations based on hope rather than empirical evidence. He could be right but futurology is normally wrong.
So, what does smart mean? And if the same results can be achieved via two very different pathways, are they both smart?
Perhaps we should drop the word “smart” or “intelligent” if we really don’t know what they mean. Instead, just describe results.
Good points, E. I think it may fall under the heading of “I know it when I see it.”