PG expects that he is not the only person who hangs around on TPV who has been spending a lot of time reading about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While this topic is one of many about which PG has no real expertise, he will observe from his reading in 20th Century history that there is a problem which often seems to affect almost all dictators, especially during wartime. Everyone who is close to the strong man is afraid to tell him that his pet project is a really bad idea.
That nearly constant failing has been the salvation of democratic nations for a very long time.
Lots of people express their opinions of that war quietly and passively. I frequent Pixabay – a site of free imagery, both photos and illustrations. Like any social site, participants have their profiles there, usually with their avatar picture. In the last few days, since the war started, many of those profile pictures have changed to display a Ukrainian flag, to show their solidarity. Sadly, this fact alone doesn’t help anyone, but what else could the Pixabay artists do?
Better than doing nothing and pretending everything is unicorns and fuzzy bunnies.
As long as it doesn’t end with the war, however it ends.
Anything that strengthens the spine of the IdiotPoliticians™ for the long haul is useful.
(Germany is belatedly realizing that relying on the kindness of strangers isn’t enough.)
Putin will not be the last autocrat to try to play the 19th century great game on neighbors. How his ploy ends will inform Xi’s own planned invasion. The west needs to be prepared.
Germany just did a 180. They junked their green energy platform, are extending nuclear plants and coal plants, and adopting a policy of avoiding reliance on outsiders for energy. They also are raising their defense spending o=to over 2% of GDP.
This is exactly what Trump told them in 2018 when he said their energy and defense policies would encourage Russian aggression.. That advice was rejected by Europe and ridiculed in the US by credentialed experts.
Scariest words in politics circa 2022: “Trump was right.”
The British beat the US Marines at Twenty-Nine Palms in Utah recently. I certainly don’t have all the details, but they let the Marines initially advance, and then went after the supply lines and sent small groups after the command centers. It was new doctrine the British had developed, and they go to Utah to test this stuff. The Marines are paying very close attention to what happened.
The Ukrainians may have also been paying attention. They seem to be leaving the heavy armor alone, and then attacking their supply lines so they can’t continue.
I also see that Musk turned on Starlink for Ukraine in a few hours. Equipment is flowing in. Now, that’s power.
Last week a pundit was sure the russians wouldn’t invade because he thought they didn’t have enough trucks to maintain a proper supply train. Because they didn’t need them in Russia where they relied on their extensive railroads.
This weekend, we saw this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA
I saw that video, but I wasn’t aware of the supply train angle. But this would be a modern example of “amateurs talk about strategy and tactics; professionals study logistics.”
Good reminder about the importance of logistics, E.
“Amateurs talk about strategy and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics and sustainability in warfare,” is attributed to General Robert Hilliard Barrow of the United States Marines. I thought the quote came from General Omar Bradley, a renown commander during the Second World War, but appear to be mistaken.
I will differ on the location of Twenty-Nine Palms, however. It’s located in the desert of Southern California, west of San Bernardino. An old trail variously called The California Road, The Utah Trail, The Old Southern Road, The Immigrant Road, The Old Mormon Road and The Mormon Road does go through what I understand are the outskirts of Twenty-Nine Palms, however.
Oh, I thought quote was even older. But I am astonished that it doesn’t appear Putin has ever heard it. I’m listening to hilarious snark on YouTube about how our 80s pop culture made the Russians out to be so fearsome, but I remember learning back in the day that we tested our war equipment against theirs by proxy. We would arm one side in a conflict, the Soviets armed the other side, and the Soviet equipment was frequently junk.
Until that video in Felix’s link made the rounds, I’d been assuming Putin spent the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union buying better tanks and planes and such. Instead the guy who is the voice of Paddington Bear is pwning them. Would anyone believe this if it happened in a movie?
Many years ago when I was very much younger, I had orders to Twenty-Nine Stumps, thought it was in Utah, and wondered where the palms came from. The orders were subsequently changed, but some ideas are just hard to get rid of.
History similarly tells us that regimes dreaming of QUICK VICTORIOUS WARS™ rarely get them.
Putin resorting to nuclear blackmail this early suggests the past four days haven’t delivered one.
Unfortunately, shattering those irrational dreams (and the delusions of many others) is being paid for in blood.