Publishing Predictions: What will happen in 2017?

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From MacGregor Literary:

So a new year is here, and it’s time to make some predictions about what will happen in 2017. I do NOT have the gift of prophecy, but that doesn’t stop me from pontificating and making wild surmises, all while not really having a clue about much of anything beyond the concept that “books are good.”  So with that as an introduction, here are one agent’s thoughts on what will be happening in our industry during the new year:

1. We’re going to see huge growth with audio books. It’s clear that alternative forms of books are part of the growth pattern in publishing, and audio is the next big thing with the under-40 crowd. (The only downside? Amazon has bought up every audio book company, so they’ve basically cornered the market.)

2. All the talk about growth potential with US publishers is going to be on rights sales. In other words, subsidiary and derivatives are going to play a MUCH more significant role in every contract negation you have this year. Expect every conversation you have with a publisher to explore dramatic rights, foreign rights, greeting cards, plush toys, and board games. Another reason to go on living!

. . . .

5. More mid-size publishers will be bought by Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Hachette, and Simon & Schuster. In fact, with those first three all making major purchases over the last two years, I expect we’ll see S&S follow suit by trying to snap up some struggling houses with strong niche markets.

6. Everyone is going to start bundling ebooks. It’s been a growing movement among ebook publishers, and this year we’ll see major houses begin to do it… and thus shrink author earnings even more.

. . . .

8. We’re going to see a group of successful ebook authors quit indie publishing. For the record, I am NOT opposed to indie publishing, and have been very vocal in encouraging the authors I represent to consider doing some of their titles indie. But with declining indie sales, we’re now going to start seeing a migration of big-name authors back toward traditional publishers. Have a look at the news so far this year, and you’ll see the movement has already begun.

Link to the rest at MacGregor Literary and thanks to Sariah for the tip.

45 thoughts on “Publishing Predictions: What will happen in 2017?”

  1. Why in heaven’s name would an indie author who makes big money publishing their own books and maintaining control of their work want to sign up with a traditional publisher and lose control and income? I think number eight is wishful thinking from a trad publisher.

    • Chris Syme, I opened up this thread, jumped to comments, and paged up to see if PG had added his comments. Happened to read Item 8 and burst out laughing. 😆 Funniest thing I have seen all day.

    • Additionally, if an indie author hasn’t demonstrated success in the form of sales, a traditional publisher will pay little attention to him/her.

      If an indie author has demonstrated sales success, he/she is making significantly more money than would be likely with a traditional publisher.

  2. Lots of misstatements in there.

    For starters, Amazon hasn’t cornered the market in audiobooks. They’ve bought a couple of distributors but they address different segments and work differently. There are competitors both in the US and Europe.

    Mind you, the market is small and likely to level off at a lower size than ebooks, so growing competitors to Audible is going to be a challenge. But saying they’ve “cornered the market” is pretty inaccurate, especially since they don’t actually own the content.

    • my first thought on the audio book statement is I wonder if he really has the cause and effect backward.
      Are audiobooks increasing in popularity because amazon is now pushing them more cause it is one of the things they sell?
      I don’t really know, but that feels more likely to me.

      • Audiobooks are increasing in popularity because they’re so handy. You can listen to books while driving, gardening, doing crafts, cooking… I’m hearing about love of audiobooks from all kinds of people these days, from fellow retirees to my dental hygienist. Amazon makes them easy to create, I guess, but I suspect their spread is due more to Overdrive and libraries.

        • Also because they are now digital downloads/streaming. They were never going to be more than a tiny niche when they were cassettes or CDs, because they were bulky, unwieldy, and so easy to lose or break parts. Now they are much more convenient and accessible, and a lot cheaper, so more people are willing/able to take a chance on them.

        • I’m going to agree that driving is a huge part of it. Commutes are growing more frustrating by the day and an audiobook can significantly reduce the pain.

          In DC, it was probably all that saved me from becoming a raging lunatic. (Okay, slight exaggeration).

          With them going to streaming now, it’s way easier to use them. No fumbling to change the CD in the car is huge. Plus, phone streaming…yay!

    • AuthorsRepublic distributes audiobooks into many markets, including Findaway and Audible. Works for me, and I get to keep control of my work rather than be a serf for ACX.

      • Hi Karen,

        I’d be interested in knowing more about your decision to use Author’s Republic instead of ACX. I’m in the process of deciding which way to go right now. Both have equally horrible seven-year contracts (I really resent committing for that long). I guess a pro I see for Author’s Republic is the wider distribution, but as a con, I’ve heard some people have had issues stemming from their TOS. Bottom line, to be perfectly honest, I can’t see much difference between the two, but if you have a blog post or something written about it, I’d be happy to read it!

        • You aren’t locked into 7 years. The full terms are visible here: https://www.authorsrepublic.com/terms

          Specifically, section 4. In 4.2 (B), you can request termination at any time. The “6-months” bit is to flush pending transactions out of the system. Lots of POD and ebook distributors have something similar. They have their own lock-ins with their partners, but they do provide a method for removing exclusivity if that persists unduly. (At least, as I read it…(DISCLAIMER — Not a lawyer…))

          I also had a lengthy Q&A session with them before I signed up. Drop me an email at KarenMyers@HollowLands.com and I’ll send you a copy.

          ———-

          4.1 Length

          (A) This Agreement will come into force on its effective date, being the date of agreement shown on the signature page hereof, and will continue in force for a period of seven (7) years thereafter, unless terminated or extended in accordance with this Agreement (the “Term”), in the manner provided in Section 4.2 “Termination.”

          (B) This Agreement will be automatically renewed automatically for additional 7 (seven) year terms without need for further action unless, not less than sixty (60) days prior to the end of the term, the RIGHTS HOLDER provides Author’s REPUBLIC with written notice of termination.

          4.2 Termination

          (A) Author’s REPUBLIC may, in its sole discretion and at any time, withdraw the Audiobook from distribution for any reason whatsoever. Author’s REPUBLIC will give written notice to the RIGHTS HOLDER of the withdrawal from the distribution and the reasons for such withdrawal.

          (B) The RIGHTS HOLDER shall be entitled to terminate this Agreement effective six (6) months after Author’s REPUBLIC’S receipt of a written termination notice.

          (C) On termination, Author’s REPUBLIC shall endeavor to remove the Audiobook from continued distribution; however this may not be possible immediately in all cases, and for Audible, Amazon and iTunes, no shortening of the distribution term is possible. On termination, Author’s REPUBLIC will attempt to transfer distribution rights for Audible, Amazon and iTunes back to the RIGHTS HOLDER.

          4.3 Reversion of Rights to Rights Holder

          (A) Upon termination of this Agreement, all distribution rights in the Audiobook granted to Author’s REPUBLIC in this Agreement, except the rights to dispose of existing stock, will revert back to the RIGHTS HOLDER, provided that for as long as any license or contract previously granted to a third party as authorized by this Agreement remains in effect pursuant to Section 4.2(C), then Author’s REPUBLIC will continue after the termination to have the right to its share of the proceeds from any such licenses or contracts.

          (B) Should Author’s REPUBLIC fail to distribute through a specific distributor within six (6) months of receipt of the RIGHTS HOLDER”S written request to do so, the non-exclusive right to distribute to that distributor will revert back to the RIGHTS HOLDER.

          4.4 Survival of Certain Provisions

          Upon the expiration or termination of this Agreement, any rights reverting to the RIGHTS HOLDER shall be subject to all licenses and other grants of rights made by Author’s REPUBLIC to third parties pursuant to this Agreement. Any and all rights of Author’s REPUBLIC under such licenses and grants of rights, and all warranties, representations, and indemnities of the RIGHTS HOLDER, shall survive the expiration or termination of this Agreement.

          ————–

          And I’m now waiting to be schooled in my errors by PG and others… 🙂

    • I tried to like audiobooks, I really did. I had some books on cassette a couple decades back 🙂 and enjoyed listening while showering in the morning for work, putting on makeup, etc. But I really don’t like most of the voices on audible. I hate some of them.

      The only audible book I’ve enjoyed the voice is DAvid Suchet’s reading of the New Testament. Love that man’s voice (and was a Poirot fan from the get-go) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIRaC7jlvE0

      I’ll quit audible soon. I just don’t like those sanitized, scrubbed, no-personality voices.

      Now, Harlan Ellison–he can read his stories. 😀

      • That’s why I put up a sampler on my book pages on my website(s) for the audiobook, so people can get a listen to the voice before they commit.

        Most of the retailers do the same.

  3. PG should have also included this one just to give us another laugh;

    9. There’s going to be a push to offer new books on mobile phone applications first. Publishers have figured out that people under 30 want to read books on their phones, so there’s going to be many titles that follow the video game market and are offered to mobile readers before anyone else.

    Apparently the guy doesn’t know that you can install the Kindle app on your smartphone.

    There’s no need to go mobile first when you can hit it at the same time you go digital.

    Duh.

    • Also no problemo downloading audiobooks to your smartphone, too!

      And then you can bluetooth it to your car’s audio system, as well as loading it onto a flash drive into the car audio’s USB port.

  4. Bear in mind, PVers, this agent is a hybrid agent who sells both to the Christian and general market. Very few of them are willing to engage the market in this way. Chip has a stellar reputation as an agent (though he and I differ on whether C-fic is ever going to make a meaningful comeback) but recall that he is primarily agenting and speaking of this niche market alone.

    The C-fic market is shrinking. The readers are aging, and when he says the average reader is 50-something, I read 70-something. Young readers who might otherwise read C-fic are put off by the sameness and milk-and-water quality of the titles offered. Houses that used to be standalones are getting skarphed up by conglomerates and by big NY houses. So his revealing statement that there are only a handful of places to pitch any given project — this is very true. Opportunities for authors in this market who haven’t sold a swackload of books are rare. Possibilities for debut authors are virtually nonexistent. After 15 years trying (with spotty success) to sell in this market, to me Chip’s predictions seem spot-on.

  5. To some extent. I think any niche market that doesn’t try to meet readers’ needs across a wide range of preferences is short-sighted and foolish. C-fic was one of the last niche markets to admit that electronic books might be (their words) “a book.” It’s still selective about which presses are the “right” houses to sell to. They’re still needlessly picky about what you can and can’t write about, including, for some houses, lists of banned concepts, inappropriate themes, and no-no words.

    In my opinion, they are circling the wagons and hoping those millions of Indians simply go away.

    • @ Deb

      Why can’t any C-fic — or ANY genre — author sell directly to readers via Amazon or any indie-friendly venue? Duh!

      Then successful sales are dependent on individual author marketing for discovery. Such marketing strategies and tactics are already well developed and accessible to indies in any business, not just publishing.

      • They do. I belong to a FB group of CHristian Indie Authors and there are over 1000 there. Many are quite savvy businesspersons/authorpreneurs. Some make nice money, some not. Some keep Excel, run Bookbub, and do all the things to get their books out there–including offering audiobooks. Some are routinely on the Amazon “clean and wholesome” or Inspirational Fiction-Romance bestselling slots.

        Some are hybrid (sell to Love Inspired or Bethany or other C-Fic publishers and do their own indie thing). Some are wholly indie. Some have won awards for their indie works. I know at least two with film options (one with a film in the works). There may be more, as I only check in once in a while and am not up on all updates.

        I think the ones who learn to work any side that brings them income will continue fine into the future, even as sales have dropped, sometimes by half or more, during last year’s changes. (Some increased sales.)

        But to not look into the indie side of things for trad-published authors in C-Fic is to maybe dig one’s own grave as bookstores close, both Christian and Superstores that have religious books sections, where C-Fic was most often shelved.

        • Last time the topic of the Christian fiction publishing sub-culture came up here in the comments I took my sister to coffee to ask her about it. Her experience with a variety of church reading circles and church libraries was that the people in charge of selecting books vet imprints, not books nor authors. Selectors do not read the books before selecting them. It takes too much time, and if the book isn’t acceptable that time has been wasted. (And a great deal of fiction that doesn’t come from a safe imprint is not acceptable.)

          If Imprint C is safe, any book from Imprint C is safe. If a book from Imprint C turns out not to be safe, then that can be blamed on Imprint C, not the person selecting the book for the church library or reading circle.

          If Author A published books through Imprint C and then published a book through Imprint XXX, that book will not be purchased for the church library or reading circle. Why didn’t Imprint C publish it? What’s wrong with it?

          Self-publishing, or publishing with a non-approved imprint is only viable at all within ones own church circle, and even then not very. Why didn’t you publish through Imprint C? What’s wrong with your book?

          That’s one woman’s experience with the consumer side of the Christian fiction market. It’s a version of the known quantity factor that Del Rey or Tor offer, or of Star Trek or Star Wars novelizations.

          • Disney. You expect certain things when you take your kids to a Disney show or watch the Disney channel. It has been vetted, ‘curated’ if you will.

            I’ve actually run into the same phenomena with youtube minecraft videos (a thing at my house.) Some are iffy, but if I hear StampyCat or DanTDM, I know my kid isn’t going to come to the dinner table going “F**** Dude, what’s for F****ig dinner?”

      • They/we do, of course. There’s even less stopping C-fic authors from going indie than general market authors. Many writers I never dreamed would go indie have done so, jumping ship from traditional publishers. Reasons are unknown to me, but may vary. These are names you’d recognize if you have been in the market for the past 10-15 years. I imagine the stories would vary from one to another.

        Gordon, I do know C-fic friendly book clubs that will take a chance on a writer who’s new to them, and will pick up books from an author known to them. I hadn’t heard that they were locked into certain publishers, but I certainly don’t know them all.

        • I thought my sister’s description of her experiences with various church reading circles sounded a lot like other niche audiences — like, for example, people who read Star Trek licensed fiction. Even if the majority of church reading circles were that conservative, it doesn’t follow the majority of Christian fiction readers are that conservative in their personal reading selections.

          It is reasonable that if you are a niche reader, the filtering a trusted label can provide is useful faced with the sheer number of options in the open market.

          I’ll make a note for when I have some time to compare Amazon’s also read lists for known niche labels to more general labels and see if the also reads so any tendency to stay within label.

  6. I think I need number 6 explained to me. I’m not seeing how bundling cuts into the trad pub author’s profit margin. Unless he’s saying publishers are going to bundle ebooks with MMPBs, I don’t see the risk for the author. At this point, their profit margin on hardcovers and trade paperbacks are about the same as ebooks.

    People who only read digital will either just pay for the ebook, or they’ll buy the bundle… author probably makes more money if they by the bundle, since they get full price before discounts.

    How is the author losing sales with bundling? I’m just not following. I hear this with the discounted audio books on Amazon when you buy the ebook. The vast majority of people only buy one format. So getting someone to buy two is an EXTRA sale.

    • I have bought bundles from StoryBundle (dot com) and enjoyed the experience. I usually pay more than requested. The bundles have a limited lifetime, so you you actually want to like their page or join their list to be notified when new ones are created. IMVHO, It can be useful to just visit the site and browse the archived bundles for recommendations.

      • @ DaveMich

        Me, too. Especially the NaNoWriMo and similar bundles that DWS and KKR promote and contribute to.

      • I’ve gotten two different SF bundles, and I always pay more, too, cause some are such great deals, you feel it’s worth it to “tip.” 😀

      • This post just reminded me to check my email from Storybundle. I see a Passive Voice regular is in it! I love those bundles, and treat them the way I treat anthologies: they’re a discovery tool for me to find new authors.

        I’d be curious if any PVers who’ve been part of bundles can shed light on how well it’s worked for them. I’m assuming it helps in the long run, but perhaps I’m missing something.

    • But, some of this stuff is good for a laugh or two. That’s the only reason I even look at this sort of thing. Usually for the comments here, though. They tend to be gold.

  7. >But with declining indie sales, we’re now going to start seeing a migration of big-name authors back toward traditional publishers.

    Yeah, I needed a good laugh. I suspect those “big name authors” are those who can’t be bothered to learn how being indie works, and want mummy and daddy to hold their hand. Boo hoo. Go back to the mines, then. All that nurturing and validation comes at a price, though.

    And if the article’s author meant some things applied to Christian fiction, that should be stated up front. I don’t care how right he might be on those issues, he shouldn’t represent things he says as general ideas that will misdirect people who might not have the experience with how some folks represent the publishing world.

  8. I didn’t see anything to indicate he was speaking about Cfic only. He says “publishing industry” several times.

    • True, but he wouldn’t be the first person to be blinded by his context and think that his experience is representative of the whole industry.

      • Or to just assume that everyone who reads his blog knows his context.

        You see the same thing in the guidelines for a lot of romance publishers. They’ll say something like, “We take all genres,” when what the mean is, “We take all romance subgenres.” It doesn’t even occur to them to specify the context. I think a lot of folks make that mistake without thinking about it.

        Angie

  9. What they “forgot” to say about audiobooks, is that the big publishers now insist on audio rights — which agents know. No audio rights, no deal. No wonder publishers expect their audio sales to increase.

  10. 2. All the talk about growth potential with US publishers is going to be on rights sales. In other words, subsidiary and derivatives are going to play a MUCH more significant role in every contract negation you have this year. Expect every conversation you have with a publisher to explore dramatic rights, foreign rights, greeting cards, plush toys, and board games. Another reason to go on living!

    I don’t understand this one. It is already standard for publishers to license all rights, whether or not they are exploiting them now, or plan to ever exploit them. A third party wants to make a movie of your book later on? Great! We’ll take a cut, thank you.

    What is supposed to be different and why is it a good thing?

  11. *On the other hand, we’re going to see the end of the ultra-low price on ebooks. All those business geniuses who took over ebook lines and were told to grow the readership have now been slapped upside the head for not making enough money. So expect ebook prices to begin to grow across the board — meaning we’re moving toward the end of the 99-cent ebook, and thus earning authors a bit more and counter-balancing #6 above.*

    Umm… don’t think I’ve ever seen a trad-pub 99cent ebook. I’ve seen lots of trad ebooks that are more than $10, more than the paper copy. Maybe I’m missing something, but the last few times I looked on Amazon, all the 99cent books I saw looked self-published.
    And the authors of those books probably aren’t too concerned about making ‘a bit’ more, since — apart form the fact they can change their price anytime they ike — their 99cent book is making them as much per copy as the trad author makes per $10 book.

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