Self-Publishing Predictions for 2020 and the 2020s

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from ALLI:

This New Year marks not just the turning of a year but the beginning of a decade. Ten years ago the iPhone was a new-fangled piece of technology and ebooks were a rarity. Today, as indie authors get to grips with a plethora of technology, ALLi director Orna Ross looks to the future, with seven key self-publishing predictions for 2020 — and the 2020s.

We could make lots of self-publishing predictions for 202o and the decade to come. Publishing has become a sector of great change and the pace will not slow in the 2020s. But what do we most need to stop and notice now, as we close the first decade in which authors became serious publishing players?

Before getting stuck into the predictions, it’s worth saying that as authors–as human beings–we are not just passive responders. We replicate and reinforce trends through our actions and ideas. The future is not something that will happen to us; we create the future through the choices we make.

When it comes to publishing, our creative choices have an impact for other authors, not just ourselves. When we make an empowered choice from creative principles, the whole community is enabled and strengthened. When we choose unethical behavior, or lazy writing and publishing, we are not just shrinking our own opportunities, but everyone’s.

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The global publishing market is expected to register a revenue of about USD 356 billion by 2022 and publishing will continue to grow faster in countries outside the US and UK, with new services growing up to accommodate and further that growth.

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Currently, Amazon is by far the biggest player in self-publishing in the US and UK and growing swiftly in other countries where it has a presence but three other distributors stand out in terms of reaching more territories in ebooks: Kobo Writing Life, PublishDrive, and StreetLib. Similarly, Ingram Spark in print books and distributors like Findaway Voices in audiobooks are reaching parts of the global book-buying audience that are not served by KDP print or ACX, Amazon’s ebook and audiobook platforms.

As self-publishing gains momentum around the world, existing platforms like will extend their reach and services–Amazon KDP is now offering ads in Italy, France and Spain, as well as the US, UK and Germany (Read William’s post on what that might mean for indie authors here)–and new platforms will emerge that make it easier for authors to market content globally.

Expect Amazon and Ingram Spark to continue to expand; Kobo Writing Life to be bought; Apple to focus again on Apple Books when Tim Cook, the current CEO departs; Barnes & Noble’s Nook to also rise from the ashes as soon as James Daunt has sorted out the physical bookstores (perhaps also providing a platform to Waterstones); and Google Play to step up their services, with an improvement in their service to authors in 2020.

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At ALLi we’ve identified ten business models being used by today’s authors to make a living from writing and in 2020 we will see more and more authors come to understand how self-publishing changes them from being professionals who write to business owners who write and publish.

And that the best insurance author can have against any seismic changes in our industry is a large and growing group of engaged readers on a platform we own and control.

As more authors move more fully into self-publishing 3.0, we’ll see author business models evolve and diversify. One development we haven’t seen yet is a band of authors coming together to offer a direct subscription model to their shared readers in their niche.

Link to the rest at ALLI

1 thought on “Self-Publishing Predictions for 2020 and the 2020s”

  1. One development we haven’t seen yet is a band of authors coming together to offer a direct subscription model to their shared readers in their niche.

    I think that’s been tried and flopped a few times. They even carefully vetted the participating authors to ensure a top drawer literary experience.

    And authors coming together? Strip away the extraneous, and it’s a guild. They don’t work well without barriers to market entry. Calls for unity will be ignored by all the independent authors who 1) don’t care about unity, and 2) will be happy to undercut anyone who sets themselves up as special.

    How’s the Author’s Guild doing?

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