The key to surviving the forthcoming robot revolution

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From The New York Post:

Millions of Americans are fearful that robots will take their jobs.

And rightly so, say some recent studies. A 2017 study from Forrester Research projected that 25 million jobs will be axed from the US workforce over the next decade because of automation, but only 15 million jobs will be created in their place. Another widely cited 2013 study from Oxford University found that as much as 47 percent of the US workforce could be at risk of losing their jobs to automation within the next 20 years, particularly those workers in sectors like transportation, logistics and commercial retail.

. . . .

Other research takes a more optimistic view: A report out this week from professional services firm Accenture and the World Economic Forum projects that as few as 16 percent of jobs “are at risk of displacement … after accounting for potential job gains that would arise from the same trends.”

“There will obviously be some displacement, but I think, net-net, these technologies really allow for the expansion of human consciousness and the expansion of jobs,” said Brian Uzzi, a professor at the Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering. “It shouldn’t be thought of as machines substituting for jobs, but it’s going to be about job growth in current areas.”

. . . .

Whatever the numbers ultimately turn out to be, they’re likely to worry people with no STEM or engineering backgrounds to speak of — the actors, writers, English and psychology majors of the world. The good news though: Even if you don’t have a tech background, automation may help you at work.

Indeed, Uzzi and other experts believe that the future for such workers will revolve around using AI to enhance their efficiency and productivity, rather than regarding it as a job-taking threat. These experts see the selling point of human labor as residing in humans’ trademark creativity, sympathy and intuition — qualities not even the most advanced of automatons can effectively replicate.

LivePerson is one tech firm that’s proving that people with non-STEM backgrounds can find work in this changing environment. The New York-based company, which creates chatbots for clients in sectors like hospitality or telecommunications, employs a battalion of trained actors and linguists to write the content that customers interact with digitally.

Whatever the numbers ultimately turn out to be, they’re likely to worry people with no STEM or engineering backgrounds to speak of — the actors, writers, English and psychology majors of the world. The good news though: Even if you don’t have a tech background, automation may help you at work.

Indeed, Uzzi and other experts believe that the future for such workers will revolve around using AI to enhance their efficiency and productivity, rather than regarding it as a job-taking threat. These experts see the selling point of human labor as residing in humans’ trademark creativity, sympathy and intuition — qualities not even the most advanced of automatons can effectively replicate.

. . . .

Bradbury and his team develop the chatbots’ voices and written content — “very much a different job,” he explained, than what their coworkers on the programming side do. He likened his company’s left brain/right brain structure, in which writers and engineers work side by side, to using Microsoft Word: “It’s a different job to write the words into the word processor than to build the code into the word processor [and] decide where the buttons go.”

Psychology is yet another industry already benefiting from AI, Uzzi said, pointing out emerging technologies that diagnose patients’ mental health challenges and aid licensed psychologists in developing treatment plans for them more expeditiously and effectively.

Link to the rest at The New York Post and thanks to Judith for the tip.

12 thoughts on “The key to surviving the forthcoming robot revolution”

  1. The key to surviving the forthcoming robot revolution is doing things robots can’t.

    A robot can read scripts (“Is it plugged in – have you tried turning it off and back on?”), but trouble shooting something not on their script will trip them up.

    The same goes for creative stuff, half the time us humans don’t understand why people love a book or a song – so there’s no way to program a robot to spew them out (or properly edit them for that matter. 😉 )

  2. A lot of hype going around.
    Lots of misinformation about both robots and AI.
    Of the two, robots are mostly for real.

    No need to panic, though.
    First, robots (or AI) are not going to displace actual knowledge workers, crafters, or creatives.

    Second, any job a robot can do well, is most likely not a job a modern educated human should be doing.

    Third, robots are already out there all over and the world hasn’t ended.

    Fourth, don’t ignore robots in your world building. Unless its about a luddite dystopia. 😉
    (Or a period piece.)

    It’s the 21st century out there.

    • Yes. I was confused by this sentence:

      …they’re likely to worry people with no STEM or engineering backgrounds to speak of — the actors, writers, English and psychology majors of the world.

      I’ve never heard of a robot that could do those jobs. I assume if robots with AI capabilities ever do exist, they will likely be purposed as housekeeping/party androids, like the one in an episode of “Dark Matter.” Or as some kind of Terminator…

      On the other hand, unskilled factory workers whose jobs are repetitive and predictable would be the most likely to worry about robots. I’ve known people who did those jobs and liked them precisely for the qualities that make those jobs suitable for a robot. They’re the ones I’d worry about.

  3. I am optimistic about what computers and robots will be able to do in the future. I expect to see a lot of jobs replaced or drastically changed.

    In many cases, I expect humans to work with AI and robotics. The human factor won’t go away, but a human combined with a computer and a robot will do the work of many humans today.

    And I expect these combos to cut a wide swathe of types of jobs. There will still be surgeons, but one surgeon will perform 30 procedures a day spread over the globe instead of only three or four in a single hospital. There will still be plumbers, but their robotic helpers will make the house-calls. There will still be computer programmers, but one programmer with intelligent tools will be as productive as a ten-person team today. Instead of ten farmers on ten tractors, one farmer will operate 10 intelligent drone tractors.

    Will there be fewer jobs? That is a harder question for me. It depends on how societies and cultures respond. We could just do more stuff; like more intensive health care and custom built appliances. Or we could go to a one day work week for a job that pays the bills. Go back to the single bread winner extended family. Or most of the population could live short vegetative lives in their own sewage while consuming opiates. Lots of possibilities and combinations are more likely than going only one way.

    Nothing happens overnight, predictions are always approximate, but I see each of these things happening already in some way.

    • One point the robotic naysayers forget is that the US labor force is on track for a major reduction as the last boomers and first gen x-ers age out of the labor force.

      The gap could be filled through brain-drain, “stealing” ever increasing numbers of other nations’ most productive workers or it could be filled with robots.

      Robots will likely be less contentious as well as cheaper.

  4. A lot of people work in jobs that require little in the way of skills. All the restaurant workers, bartenders, assembly plant workers. Those folks are going to be in big trouble. Anyone who thinks that won’t affect them is myopic. As unemployment rises, those folks will have no disposable income. The economy stagnates. Even if you keep your job, it will affect you. That’s the nature of economic upheaval.

    • Don’t be so sure bartenders and food service business workers are low skill.

      A lot depends on the venue and the management. Hotels and upscale restaurants, especially in tourist destinations, are very picky and often short of good staff. Those jobs are not entry level. A good bartender in a tourist destination can easily clear $50K and more. Some sites are seasonal but dealing effectively with people is as much a skill as any technical profession.

        • There’s more to being a bartender than mixing liquids.
          Do you really think a W resort or a Hilton Hotel is going to deploy drink mixing machines in their operations? Even humanoid ‘bots?

          If anything, human service will be valued and reserved for the wealthy in an advanced robotics society. Which means the less affluent will aspire to similar service.

          As Mr O’Brien says, human service will be a point of competition. Don’t discount the human factor.

          Will some low end service jobs be automated? Probably. There’s already robot waiters in China. They might be adopted elsewhere. But I don’t see those job categories disappearing because they do require skill and human judgement.

          And because human service is a status symbol.
          Think about it.

          • If human bartenders become a status symbol, then they’ll be the exception rather than the rule. The few working bartenders will have little economic impact, and there will still be hundreds of thousands of people with no marketable skills out of work.

            • By your reasoning, automats should never have died off.

              Consumers have a say in how they receive service.
              And the higher up they go in affluence and status the more they expect it. Which, because of aspirational consumer psychology, makes personal service a competitive advantage in many businesses.

              http://consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Group_Influences.html

              Businesses don’t automatically rush to the lowest common denominator. Instead, they look at what they *really* sell and go from there. Are they selling quick eats? Style? Nostalgia. Ambiance?
              It makes a difference.

              Will some low end operators trade waiters for robots? Sure.
              Chuck E. Cheese type places, crowded to the hilt with families and noisy kids, absolutely. Cafeterias and all you can eat buffets, probably.

              But even mildly upscale sitdown restaurants will think twice about wanting to be seen as “the cheap place with the robots”. The quaint little bistro next to the Regal Beagle, Chez Jack’s, is not going to rush to automate.

              There will still be plenty of room for human service personnel. Less jobs, sure. But it will be the less desirable jobs, occupied by the less desirable employees, that go away. The skilled and experienced will survive fine.

    • This will be a great example of consumer tastes and preferences. Consumers will choose restaurants with humans or robots. Restaurants will decide which option to take. Some may take both.

      When we have a zillion restaurants, there is little reason to think they will all move in lockstep and ignore consumers who control their own wallets.

      Restaurants compete on lots of things. Prices, menu, preparation, decor, ambiance, background music, waiters, wine list, reviews. It’s not an easy thing to balance. Now we can add robots and humans to the list.

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