From author Michael Bunker:
In the final days of the Roman Empire there were plenty of people still arguing (and from real evidence I might add) that the Roman Empire was still in power. The problem is that the conclusions they were drawing from the evidence was incorrect. The Ceteris Paribus fallacy had most people convinced that because the Roman Empire still ruled, then it would continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Even though the empire’s days were numbered.
I keep telling people that the days of Kindle Stuffing as a means of launching a new career are numbered. There is still a place for .99 and free books, but the days when new authors could count on cheap or free to get their names out there in a big way and to perhaps break out from the crowd… well, I suspect those days are generally over.
Authors don’t realize that readers have changed. Even this early in the e-book revolution, there has been a fundamental change in reader behavior that almost everyone is missing. In one of my last articles, I likened it to what happened with dollar stores. Anytime a once rare, pricey, or difficult to acquire commodity becomes abundant and inexpensive, buyers will gorge on it… for a time. Set a hungry man free in a field of strawberries and see what he does. But have that man live in a field of strawberries – where there is no scarcity, no seasons, and no cost – and you’ll see that he behaves differently in regards to strawberries. Sure, he’ll still eat them now and then, but the gorging will stop. Quality and value always assert themselves when price and/or scarcity is removed from the equation.
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[R]eaders, if you take the time to talk to as many of them as I do, will tell you that they are reading fewer and fewer of the cheap and free books they stuff into their Kindles. And of the ones they do try, they are reading less of the book before giving up. In many cases they are giving the book 2-3 pages (in many cases far less than 10%) before they decide to go on to the next book.
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So how does the launch of Kindle Unlimited prove my point?
1. The fact that Amazon saw it as necessary to provide unlimited FREE book loans to readers means that they are choosing to compete in a new delivery method that is going to revolutionize how readers receive titles. More and more books are going to be consumed via these membership services. And we have evidence that will allow us to predict reader behavior.
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2. The fact that, unlike the Kindle Online Lending Library, Amazon has instituted a 10% read threshold before author payment is secured, proves my point even more. Amazon knows that the more free books are available, and when scarcity is removed as an issue, more readers are going to graze shop rather than committing based on a cover and a blurb. If the reader doesn’t read past the 10% threshold, Amazon doesn’t have to pay the author. This makes sense for Amazon, but it should tell you something about reader behavior and how it has changed.
Scarcity has been removed. The binge is over. Most newbie authors who count on the 2011 method of marketing and promotion to build a career are going to fail miserably.
Link to the rest at Michael Bunker and thanks to Sharyn for the tip.
Here’s a link to Michael Bunker’s books