From Esquire:
The publishing industry is in flux. One major publisher has been acquired by a private equity firm, editors are departing (and getting laid off) from others, there are fewer book media outlets than ever, and most literary discourse is happening online. But what does it all mean for the books themselves, and the ways that readers are discovering them? Here, we make some predictions about the future of books.
It’ll be even harder to launch debut fiction.
“Celebrities and tastemakers are becoming the new medium for discovery,” says Ariele Fredman, a literary agent at United Talent Agency who previously launched eight #1 New York Times bestsellers as a publicist. As a result, it will be more important than ever for debut novels to land on book club rosters.
A Reese Witherspoon, Oprah, or Jenna Bush endorsement can be enough to not only secure a spot on the bestseller list, but anoint an author with a fanbase that lasts. “If you don’t get one of those coveted spots, it becomes even harder to break a new voice,” Fredman adds.
Outside of those chosen debuts, “we’re going to see a continued investment in bigger-name authors” from publishers, says former editor Molly McGhee, the author of Jonathan Abernathy You Are Kind, “because they have guaranteed returns on investment.”
Literary genre fiction and autofiction will still be the most popular modes of storytelling.
According to Dan Sinykin, the author of Big Fiction: How Conglomeration Changed the Publishing Industry and American Literature, the biggest trend on the page—also thanks to celebrity book clubs—will continue to be “literary genre fiction,” where “writers who are more artistic than they are entertaining” riff on genre tropes like dystopias, apocalypse tales, detective novels, and space operas. Think
It’ll be even harder to launch debut fiction.
“Celebrities and tastemakers are becoming the new medium for discovery,” says Ariele Fredman, a literary agent at United Talent Agency who previously launched eight #1 New York Times bestsellers as a publicist. As a result, it will be more important than ever for debut novels to land on book club rosters.
A Reese Witherspoon, Oprah, or Jenna Bush endorsement can be enough to not only secure a spot on the bestseller list, but anoint an author with a fanbase that lasts. “If you don’t get one of those coveted spots, it becomes even harder to break a new voice,” Fredman adds.
Outside of those chosen debuts, “we’re going to see a continued investment in bigger-name authors” from publishers, says former editor Molly McGhee, the author of Jonathan Abernathy You Are Kind, “because they have guaranteed returns on investment.”
Literary genre fiction and autofiction will still be the most popular modes of storytelling.
According to Dan Sinykin, the author of Big Fiction: How Conglomeration Changed the Publishing Industry and American Literature, the biggest trend on the page—also thanks to celebrity book clubs—will continue to be “literary genre fiction,” where “writers who are more artistic than they are entertaining” riff on genre tropes like dystopias, apocalypse tales, detective novels, and space operas. Think Colson Whitehead, Marlon James, Emily St. John Mandel, and Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenyeh.
. . . .
Book clubs and indie publishers will continue investing in multiplatform storytelling—especially audio.
“Stories are commodities now,” says Julie Grau, editor and publisher of Spiegel & Grau. “They’re not tied to a specific format.” These days, a story can take shape across print, audio, ebooks, film, and live events, which means readers who may not connect with a book might love it as an audio project. For this reason, “it’s actually never been a better time to be a creator,” says Michelle Weiner, co-head of the books department at Creative Artists Agency. Plus, she adds, there has been a surge in live book events since the pandemic. She foresees a new wave of “bespoke” book programming, with more interactive events like Channing Tatum’s live art launch party at Brooklyn’s Books Are Magic.
. . . .
People will pick up books not because of the plot, but because they want to *feel* a certain way (i.e. hopeful).
BookTok “prioritizes emotional release, storytelling, and romance,” McGhee says. As a result, TikTok has created a new way of talking about books. If you watch Today Show book segments, you might see Isaac Fitzgerald or Qian Julie Wang say that a book made them laugh! or cry! or feel alllllll the feelings. Influencer Zibby Owens has organized her Santa Monica bookstore around the feelings that books are intended to elicit, rather than topic or genre.
Publishers are thinking this way, too. In marketing language and jacket copy, One World senior editor Nicole Counts says, “what we have to communicate to the reader is how they’re going to feel.”
Link to the rest at Esquire
The future of books will be cheap, abundant supply, and multiple delivery platforms.
Not good for the “guardians of culture” who worry about cheap editions “devaluing” books, the “tsunami of dreck”, the growth of online and digital channels, and the fading b&m channel.
Interesting predictions. But how often do intellectuals get anything right? The end of plot? Nah.
Oh, they might be “right”…
…for tradpub.
Note the title of the work the OP draws all it “ideas” from: it’s about the corporate publishers and breaking into the litfic establishment. Neither Patterson nor Roberts or any of their cohort factor into that world. And nothing in there applies to KU or adds up to much on KDP.
They are right about the newcomers to that world, in particular.
Who’s the youngest big name in tradpub? Anybody enduring get started in the last decade?
The backlist should be enough to support a skeletal version of the glass tower gang but what else remains in new books they can roll out? Traditionally, genre fiction has been the cash cow that supported litfic at the “prestige” imprints but a lot of that market has gone indie. Not much remains.
The trade book world has forked and they’re talking about the roads less traveled.
I’d never heard the term before, either. Poseurs, with their in-group dialects.
“Autofiction,” gimme a break. Why not just call it “autolieography?” And make extra sure a good libel lawyer is in the mix somewhere, of course. Then again, if something like The Devils Wears Prada didn’t get the author into trouble I suppose I might be seeing issues that aren’t there?
I suppose the granddaddy of this sort of thing was Tom Wolfe, in books like The Right Stuff, where he made up what the astronauts were thinking, what their attitudes about religion and politics were, etc., yet the book was sold as nonfiction.
I’d never heard the term before, either. Poseurs, with their in-group dialects.